Page 27 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

加中金融 金融论坛 Forum2022

Steve: Bitcoin is the proof of concept for blockchain. If really is what it is, it's taken on a life of its own. And the problem is, I don't see
it as a hedge. As a matter of fact, Early in the week, I basically wrote a piece basically saying “Sorry, kid, Bitcoin is just another risk
asset”. Because it was really more or less moving in lockstep with the S&P, although it hasn't actually rallied as S&P this week. But it
was moving along with stocks. And that's because people whether it's institutional, or individuals have just started to view it as another
risk asset. It's not a hedge, it's too volatile to be a hedge, you can't have a hedge that has 4 or 5% daily volatility, it doesn't work,
there's nothing on what are you hedging at that point, so let me take that off the table as far as being digital, gold, all the other stuff,
it's too volatile to be a hedge. Toward that end, you have a lot of defi companies are willing to let people employ in what I would call
insane amount of margin on something like this. So Coinbase made a big deal , when they reduced their margin to only allow you to
lever at 20 to 1. If you have something that moves 5% a day, and you're lever 20 to one, you've got a pretty high likelihood of getting
wiped out.

Steve: 比特币是区块链概念的证明。如果它是真的，它就有了自己的生命。问题是我不认为这是一种对冲。事实上在这
周的早些时候，我写了一篇文章，基本上是说“对不起，孩子，比特币只是另一种风险资产”。因为它实际上或多或少与
标准普尔指数同步波动，尽管本周它实际上并没有像标准普尔指数那样上涨。但它与股市走势一致。这是因为人们，无论
是机构投资者还是个人投资者，都开始将其视为另一种风险资产。不是对冲资产，对冲太不稳定了，你不可能用每日 4 或
5%波动做对冲, 这行不通。所以让我带上数字货币,黄金这些波动大的东西, 不能做对冲。有很多非盈利性公司愿意让员
工在这种情况下获得我所说的疯狂的利润。因此 Coinbase 做了一笔大交易，他们将利润率降低到只允许杠杆率为 20 比 1。
如果你有一个每天交易 5%的东西，如果你的杠杆是 20 比 1，你就有相当高的可能性被清盘。

Dawn: I think that the underlying technology, beneath Bitcoin, the blockchain is solid. That's something that even the traditional banks
are trying to exploit what application could be in the traditional banking process. That's something we can call the disruptive
technology that can bring breakthroughs to cut out traditional players. And if you're looking at investment ideas, it's probably more
investable, if looking at FinTech, private equity firms or venture capital that will trying to find new applications for the technology. You
never know 2030 years down the road, which this application while still survive.

Dan: 我认为比特币背后的技术，区块链是坚实的。即使是传统银行也在尝试开发传统银行流程中的应用。这就是我们所
说的颠覆性技术，可以带来突破，将传统的竞争者挤出市场。如果你在寻找投资想法，它可能更值得投资，如果你在寻找
金融科技、私募股权公司或风险资本，它们将试图找到这项技术的新应用。你永远不知道 2030 年之后，这个应用程序还
能存活。
Bruce: Do you think we've identified the founder of Bitcoin? Nakamoto?

Bruce: 你认为我们找到比特币的创始人中本聪了吗?
Steve: I think we probably have, I really don't believe that there was, you know, somebody named Satoshi Nakamoto. And
that that was a pseudonym. And you think it's Craig Wright? And the poor guy in Wales who threw away his hard drive that
with 500 million worth of bitcoin is sitting at the bottom of a dump somewhere in Wales. So you really should be mining,
you're going to get more and more that you're going to hear all this kind of stuff. But I do think that it's fascinating and they
are the people who invented the blockchain. That the underlying technology to me is where the really interesting part is, as
a lifelong trader or investor. The Cryptos themselves are fast. My son is focusing on cryptocurrency marketing, freelance
marketing for three different crypto companies. This is the thing, he makes a good living doing this. We've just told them
enjoy it while it lasts.

Steve: 我想可能吧，我真的不相信，有一个叫中本聪的人，那只是个假名。你觉得是克雷格·赖特? 威尔士的那个可怜
的家伙扔掉了他的硬盘里面有五亿比特币现在就在威尔士某个垃圾堆的底部。所以你真的挖矿，你会得到越来越多的这类
的信息。但我认为这很有趣，他们就是区块链的发明者。对我来说，潜在的技术是真正有趣的部分，作为一个终身交易者
或投资者。加密货币本身速度很快。我的儿子专注于加密货币营销，为三家不同的加密公司做自由营销。他靠这个生活得
很好。我们只是告诉他们趁现在好好享受。
Bruce: Let’s go back to the topic of inflation, I want to get everybody's thoughts on is this permanent as a transitory you know, here
in the US, we just did a 39 year high, as you probably are aware, so what I've done since I was born. Since I cut you off, when you tried
to tell me initially, Dawn, give us your thoughts on what you're seeing and thinking about inflation.

Bruce: 让我们回到通胀这个话题, 我想每个人的想法这是永久作为暂时的你知道,在美国,我们只是做了一个 39 年高,你
们可能都知道,所以我出生以来我所做的. Dawn 我之前打断你,当你最初开始试图告诉我的, 请现在告诉我们你对通胀的
看法。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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