Page 28 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

金融论坛 Forum2022 加中金融

Dawn: This is transitory three years later we will be laughing ourselves, I have a slightly different perspective. I felt that right now,
inflation is super high, that is US number is 6.8. Do I expect it to stay at this level? No, absolutely not. But do I expect it to go back to
1%? No, I don't think so either. And for my portfolio, I will say that when inflation goes up, bond yields go up. we will never see
negative inflation, which means whatever I lose in my portfolio, my long bond lost 10%. Those lose will not be recovered. So, I will say
the impact of inflation will not be laughable, even many years down the road. And then my view of it will not come back to 1%. Because
I felt that in 2000 When I immigrated to Canada, from China, I saw the huge price difference and living standard difference between
China and Canada. And I feel that, from 2010 to 2015 to 2020, it is China exporting deflation, because of the cheap goods. And now if
you look at the pricing level between China and Canada, it's very close. And, I feel that in the next 20 years, not that China is going to
export inflation. I just think that deflationary pressure by China exporting cheap goods, that era has ended just the same way as the
pandemic push, we see the pandemic which the society 10 years forward in terms of working remotely, I think in a same way, the
pandemic magnifies that inflationary pressure just fast forward, it will probably experience a painful to three years and then it will be
packed down, but it will be back down to the new norm, it won't be back down to the old norm of extremely low inflation environment.

Dawn: 这是短暂的, 三年后我们会笑自己，我有一个稍微不同的角度。我感觉现在的通货膨胀非常高，美国的数字是 6.8。
我预期它保持在这个水平吗? 不,绝对不是。但我希望它回到 1%吗? 也不可能。对于我的投资组合，当通胀上升时，债券
收益率也会上升。我们永远不会看到负通胀，这意味着无论我在投资组合中损失了什么，我的长期债券损失了 10%那些损
失是无法挽回的。因此我想说，通货膨胀的影响将不会是可笑的，即使是在许多年后。我的观点就不会回到 1%了。因为
在 2000 年，当我从中国移民到加拿大时，我看到了中国和加拿大之间巨大的价格差异和生活水平差异。我觉得从 2010 年
到 2015 年到 2020 年，中国出口通缩，因为廉价商品。现在如果你看看中国和加拿大之间的价格水平越来越接近。我觉得
在未来的 20 年里，中国不会输出通货膨胀。我只是认为通缩压力由中国出口廉价商品, 那个时代已经结束。就像新冠大
流行推动, 导致十年提出远程工作顺利推行。同样的，大流行放大通胀压力，通胀被快进, 它可能会经历一个痛苦的三年，
然后会被压制，它会回到新的标准，再不同于新冠前的极低的旧的通胀标准。
Wang: Well, I think Dawn make a very good point but I speaking about inflation as an economist instead of investor, I think inflation
is defined as a continuous rise of price level, we have this jump in price level this year. And therefore, we have this highlight inflation,
but for inflation to be to be sustained, you need to see sustained increase in the general price level for the coming years. I think over
the slightly longer term, we should converge to equilibrium. What have changed is the pandemic shock, create this short term, supply
demand imbalance Therefore, you which require change in price level to rebalance the supply and demand, but I don't see how this
can be sustained. And therefore we are going to enter a new era of somewhat high inflation. That's where I come from.

Wang: 我认为 Dawn 的观点很好但是我是以经济学家的角度而不是投资者的身份来谈论通货膨胀的，我认为通货膨胀被定
义为价格水平的持续上升，今年价格水平出现了这种跳跃。因此，我们有这个突出的通货膨胀，但要使通货膨胀持续下去，
你需要看到在未来几年物价水平的持续增长。我认为在稍长的一段时间内，我们应该趋于平衡。改变的是新冠大流行的冲
击，造成了这种短期的供需失衡，因此，你需要改变价格水平来平衡供需，但我不认为这是可以持续的。因此，由此我得
出结论，我们将进入一个略高通胀的新时代。

Bruce: I'm going to open it up to audience q&a. First question is for Steve, what do you think is the most appropriate asset allocation
at this stage? For example, equity, fixed income, real estate, etc. And for the equity market, what is a better allocation? For example,
active versus passive growth versus value, cyclical versus defensive? mega cap versus small to mid cap?

Bruce：现在是观众提问时间，第一个问题交给 Steve 是，你认为现阶段最合适的资产配置是什么?例如，权益、固定收益、
房地产等。对于股票市场来说，什么是更好的配置?例如，主动与被动增长与价值增长，周期性与防御性?大型股还是中小
型股?

Steve: There's a lot in there., I don't want to say what the right asset allocation is? Because I that is a very personal question. I think
broadly, in terms of sectors are passive versus active. You know, again, a lot has to depend on your age and risk tolerance. And I think
the thing that people get wrong the most is understanding their own risk tolerance. And I always asked this question in waiting after
a little decline in the market and say were you nervous last week? If so, are you carrying too much risk? If not, then power on, I do
think, you know, you the questioner alluded to mega caps, that is becoming a very crowded trade. And anytime you get narrowing
leadership, and more and more money, crowding into one set of market winners, that creates an instability and in and of itself,
because if there is something to trigger a turnaround, who do you sell those stocks to? Who has not invested in them and, and the
problem now with the mega caps is people are attributing them as both growth and safety? You know is Apple worth 20% more today
than it was a month ago? That's tough one. And so this is crowding of those trades. I do think that, right now, we may want a little a
bit more volatility. And I think this is a time to go a bit more defensive. This is a time to think about dividends, add some income and
some income type of strategies, even as rates are rising. Even if we expect rate rises, I don't think that's a bad place to be. I think you
want to be investing in companies that actually make money.

Steve: 这个问题里面有很多东西。我不想说什么是正确的资产配置? 因为这是一个非常私人的问题。我认为从广义上来
说，是被动的还是主动的。你知道，很多都取决于你的年龄和风险承受能力。我认为人们最容易弄错的是对自己风险承受
能力的理解。我总是在市场小幅下跌后问这个问题说你上周紧张吗? 如果是，你是否承担了太多的风险? 如果没有，那就
打开电源，我确实认为，你知道，提问者提到的超大市值，这将成为一个非常拥挤的交易。当你的领先优势缩小，越来越
多的资金涌入一组市场赢家时，这本身就造成了不稳定，因为如果有什么东西触发了扭转，你会把这些股票卖给谁? 谁没
有投资过这些股票呢，现在的问题是人们把它们视为增长和安全? 你知道苹果现在的价值比一个月前高了 20%吗?这是艰
难的一个。这就是这些交易的拥挤。我确实认为，现在我们可能需要更多的波动。我认为现在是时候采取更多的防御措施

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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