Page 33 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue
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Market 市场分析
加中金融
公开市场增长面临的另一个挑战来自证券的估值和定价。一般来说,在股票公开发行之前,投资银行会被雇佣来确定公司
及其股票在交易所上市前的价值。除了对公司股票的需求外,还有其他几个因素决定 IPO 估值,包括行业可比性、增长前
景和公司的背景。定价是困难的,因为在发行之前没有可观察到的市场价格。如果发行价定得过低,发行人就不能充分利
用其筹集资金的能力; 如果利率过高,投资者的回报就会较低。
High visibility situations such as the DoorDash and Airbnb IPOs show a disconnect between pricing and trading (a significant jump in
price during first day or week of trading- often referred to as the “pop”). Structural reasons for this include: i) small amounts of shares
being sold at the time of the IPO (limited supply); ii) significant retail demand; and iii) the length of time between regulatory filing
process and IPO trading process . Other reasons focus on unstated incentives: that CEOs/ management of companies are willing to
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allow underpricing in return for promises of analyst support and promises of access to other hot issues .
Another reason that there may be issues with pricing can be due to regulation rather than market failures. In China, researchers at
the University of Hong Kong determined that on average new stocks jumped an average of 300 percent upon their initial trading
following regulatory reforms in 2014, compared to 37 percent under a previous listing’s regime. Regulations set a limit so that most
companies could only list their stock at a maximum value of 23 times earnings per share. This was done to enable greater participation
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by retail investors . As a result, Chinese companies started to move to listing outside of China and caused the Chinese authorities to
reconsider their approach.
Market Responses
In response to these challenges, we have seen an increase in direct listings and the establishment of new financing vehicles such as
SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies). We are likely to see more changes coming from both the private sector and regulators.
Some of these responses will be new types of vehicles for raising capital like the SPACs and other responses will try to make the
private markets more efficient and more liquid. In addition, geopolitical forces may impact government initiatives to favor domestic
listings (listing of home country companies).
众所周知,如 DoorDash 和 Airbnb 的 ipo,显示了定价和交易之间的脱节(在交易的第一天或第一周,价格大幅上涨,通常
被称为“热炒”)。结构性原因包括:i) IPO 时出售的股份数量很少(供应有限);二是零售需求显著;iii)监管备案过程与 IPO 交
易过程之间的时间间隔。其他原因集中在隐含的激励制度上: 公司的首席执行官/管理层愿意允许定价过低,以换取分析师
支持并成为热门投资。
定价可能出现问题的另一个原因可能是监管而非市场失灵。在中国,香港大学(University of Hong Kong)的研究人员确定,
2014 年监管改革后,新股上市首日平均涨幅为 300%,而在此前的上市制度下,这一涨幅为 37%。监管规定,大多数公司
只能以每股收益 23 倍的上限上市。这样做是为了让散户投资者更多地参与。因此,中国企业开始在境外上市,这促使中
国当局重新考虑它们的做法。
市场反应
为了应对这些挑战,我们已经看到了直接上市的增加和新的融资工具的建立,如特殊目的收购公司(SPACs)。我们可能会
看到来自私营部门和监管机构的更多变化。
7 “What’s wrong with the IPO Process and How to Fix it,” (Knowledge @Wharton December 15,2020)
8 Loughran and Ritter, “Why has IPO Underpricing Changed Over time?” (Financial Management Autumn 2004)
9 Hudson Lockett and Thomas Hale, “Chinese IPOS underpriced by up to $200bn due to valuation limits: (Financial Times February 3,2021)
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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