Page 29 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

加中金融 金融论坛 Forum2022

了。现在是考虑股息、增加一些收入和一些收入型策略的时候了，即使利率正在上升。即使我们预计利率会上升，我也不
认为这是一个糟糕的情况。我认为你应该投资那些真正赚钱的公司。

Bruce: So next question is for Daniel and Dawn. So do you think the zero COVID strategy that China is implementing will bring them
more advantage or disadvantage in terms of economic growth compared to the herd immunity strategy that rest of the world is
happening?

Bruc：下一个问题是给 Dawn 和 Dan 的。那么，与世界其他国家正在实施的群体免疫战略相比，中国正在实施的零冠战略
是否会在经济增长方面给中国带来更多的优势或劣势?
Dan: Certainly before Omicron, there seemed to be as China was about to vote to change. It felt like the policymakers were getting
ready to modify it. There are healthcare experts, the famous, doctors in China, they seem to be suggesting that China was basically
looking for a pathway to exit zero COVID. There's a political calendar. It kind of suggests that there's at least passive acceptance by
the authorities. And then Omicron comes along, and now the debate is completely changed. It's gone back to where it was. It's a
defense of zero COVID strategy. So things are not going to change, the expectation among a lot of people, and the consensus among
people that are not the authorities, is that China will maintain its zero COVID strategy at least the second quarter of 2023. I think it
has real implications for the economy. I mean, on the one hand, it's allowed manufacturers and companies to stay open. And that's
been really good for the trade account. But it's been brutal on the consumption side. And while trade contributes about 3% of GDP
consumption, private consumption contributes close to 40 which is kind of hard.

Dan: 当然在欧米克隆之前，中国似乎决定改变。这让人感觉政策制定者正准备对其进行修改。中国的医疗专家、著名医
生似乎在暗示，中国基本上是在寻找一种零疫情的出路。当然，还有一个政治日程表，这表明至少当局是被动接受的。然
后 Omicron 出现了，现在争论完全改变了。它回到了原来的位置, 仍然是零冠状病毒感染的防御策略。很多人的预期和非
当局人士的共识是，中国将至少在 2023 年第二季度维持零冠状病毒感染的战略。我认为这对经济有真正的影响。一方面
它允许制造商和公司继续营业。这对贸易账户非常有利。但在消费方面却很残酷。虽然贸易贡献了大约 3%的 GDP 消费，
私人消费贡献接近 40，这有点难。
Wang: I agree with Dan’s assessment. I think the zero-tolerance policy has been effective for COVID and the control, but is now have
a really have take a toll on the economic activity. So the question is about the impact on the economy. I think, of course, it's negative.
But we have to put this in in a broader context, since China adopt this strategy. And for a reason, then partly because there's a lack of
for medical resources, had if there were to be a no breakout of the pandemic, that will certainly create even bigger problems, not
economic and on a society alar. So China in a difficult position now. It's unlikely to change the zero tolerance policy anytime soon, in
my view, but by the way, how to live with the economic consequence.

Wang: 是的，我同意 Dan 的评价。我认为零容忍政策对新冠肺炎和疫情控制很有效，但现在却对经济活动造成了影响。所
以问题是关于对经济的影响。我认为，当然它是负的。但我们必须把它放在一个更广泛的背景下，部分原因是医疗资源的
缺乏，如果没有大流行的爆发，那肯定会造成更大的问题，而不是经济和社会问题。所以中国现在处于一个困难的境地。
我认为不太可能很快改变零容忍政策, 但问题将是如何承受经济后果。

Bruce: And we have a last question for Dawn. This question is asking is there any strategies of institutional investor can be transferable
and apply by individual investors?

Bruce: 我们还有最后一个问题问 Dawn。问机构投资者的策略是否可以被个人投资者应用?
Dawn: When I see the trend institutional, you're going more into private which is the hardest to access for retail investor. And then
you know, even on the realistic side, I know many of my friends are buying residential houses as an investment but in a sectional word.
Real Estate is it more meaning about industrials, offices and apartments, student housing, it's completely different segments, I just
feel that that the segment of the market institutional investor and retail investor can access are different and The easiest one
overlapping is public equity. And I think one good thing when we talk about the inflation, environment or backdrop is institutional
investor now have a trend of investing less in traditional fixed income, which is harder to access market for retail. So that's good thing
to know. And what they are replacing fixed income is dividend paying stock. So on that front, maybe that's a trend you can utilize,
looking for those value dividend paying dividend paying stocks, and in public equity markets or in public markets. One emerging trend
that good for hosts with the institutional investor is just the number of ETF coming out. I think that you can take advantage of a lot of
the ETF is going into the private space, they cause issues at market distress. Some of those credits in here have had huge issues in
March 2020, but at least you have access to those segments of the market that you use not to be able to infrastructure. ETF rates has
ETF that provide much easier access for retail investor that's the closest you can get.

Dawn: 当我看到机构投资者的趋势时，你会更多地进入私人市场标的，这对散户投资者来说是最难进入的。你知道，即使
从现实的角度来看，我知道我的很多朋友都把购买住宅作为一种投资，但这只是一个局部的词。房地产更多的是指工业，
办公室，公寓，学生公寓，这与个人投资房地产是完全不同。 我只是觉得机构投资者和散户投资者可以进入的市场部分
是不同的，最容易重叠的是公共股权。当我们谈到通胀、环境或背景时，一件好事是，机构投资者现在有一种趋势，即减
少对传统固定收益产品的投资，而传统固定收益产品更难进入散户市场。值得注意的是他们用分红股票来取代固定收益。
所以在这方面，也许是一个散户可以利用的趋势，在公开股票市场寻找那些价值红利支付红利的股票。对于拥有机构投资
者的主机来说，另一个新兴的趋势是上市 ETF 的数量。我认为你可以利用这一点，很多 ETF 进入了私人领域，它们在市场
低迷时引发了问题。其中一些信贷在 2020 年 3 月出现了严重问题，但至少你可以进入那些你无法使用基础设施的细分市
场。ETF 为散户投资者提供了更方便的渠道，这是你能得到的最接近的渠道。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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