Page 26 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

金融论坛 Forum2022 加中金融

Dan: I think I agree with the last statement there. Evergrande, you can think of it in three different ways. The firm level, basically,
Evergrande is in dire consequences right now. And if you're an investor in Evergrande, you should probably be rightfully panic, because
the company does has a very uncertain future. If you look at the sector level, or even at the developer level, the impact is variable. So,
maybe there's been some pretty good data analysis recently on the developers in China and Evergrande is not alone. But its balance
sheet was really ugly. And there are a lot of other developers in China with pretty awful balance sheets that are coming into trouble
right now. But they're small and insignificant, they're basically not systemic. And then there are a lot of other developers, some of
which are quite big, who doesn't have balance sheets problem. Some of these developers, I mean, Evergrande is creating a good
opportunity. Real estate assets are decrease in price. And so there is an opportunity for some firms to pick up some good properties.
There's probably going to be a lot of consolidation take place. And then if you look at the third level is the economy level, I saw with
the complete group, Dr. Qing Wang, it's not the Evergrande is not going to provoke some kind of financial crisis. It's shining a light on
a problem that existed in a very important sector in China. That problems existed for a long time debt leverage over like, overcapacity
large unsold inventories. But it's not about to sort of precipitate some kind of major event. When Evergrande happened, a lot of
people start talking about the Chinese real estate market. But China is a collection of many different real estate markets. In Canada,
like Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Calgary, that kind of thing. You never really talked about a Canadian real estate market.
And so in China, we got to remember its the same thing. The major event that that causes that it creates a big headwind, I think for
growth, you can think about it that way.

Dan: 我同意最后部分。关于恒大，你可以用三种不同的方式来思考。从公司层面来看，恒大目前面临着可怕的后果。如
果你是恒大的投资者，你可能有理由感到恐慌，因为该公司的未来确实非常不确定。如果你着眼于行业层面，甚至开发商
层面，影响不同。也许最近有一些关于中国开发商的很好的数据分析，恒大不是唯一的公司有那样糟糕的资产负债表。中
国还有很多其他的开发商，同样现在也遇到了麻烦。但它们相对很小，基本上不是系统性的。还有更多相当大的其他开发
商，他们的资产负债表没有那糟糕，对于这些开发商，恒大事件创造了好的机会，让房地产资产的价格下跌。因此这些公
司可以获得低成本好资产的机会。可能会有很多合并发生。第三个层面是经济层面。在此我看到完整的行业整理。王博士，
这并不是恒大不会引发某种金融危机。它揭示了中国一个非常重要行业，存在的很长一段时间的问题比如债务杠杆，产能
过剩，大量未售出库存。但是这不会促成重大事件。恒大事件后，很多人关注讨论中国的房地产市场。但中国像加拿大一
样，有许多不同房地产市场的组合的集合体，比如温哥华、多伦多、渥太华、蒙特利尔、卡尔加里等等。我们从来没谈加
拿大的总体房地产市场。所以在中国也同样。这件事情对经济增长造成了很大的阻力，你可以这样想。

Wang: Just follow up on Daniel’s point: for a relate to investment into Evergrande. Either that instrument of equity given the dire
position, a situation of Evergrande for any investor who take a position on Evergrande is not an investment. It's speculation. So you
do it at your own risk.

Wang：只要补充 Dan 的观点: 关于投资恒大。考虑到恒大的糟糕处境，无论是股票工具，还是任何持有恒大债券的投资
者，都不是一项投资，这是投机。所以要自己承担风险。

Steve: That was exactly what I was going to say there were two questions I've been asked probably the most. One is, is Evergrande
investable, and my answer is the same as Dr. Wong's, which is No. it's not an investment. It's speculation. And again, going back to my
other theme, you as a foreign investor, particularly, are the last person that Beijing cares about in terms of resolving the situation.
They care about systemic stuff, they don't care foreign investor. So if you invest that's pure gambling. And the other question is this
another Lehman moment? Was this China's Lehman moment? And my answer was always no, because it's not interconnected in the
same way.

这正是我想说的有两个问题我被问得最多。一个是恒大是否值得投资，我的答案和王博士的一样，都是否定的。这不是投
资是投机。再次回到前面提到的作为一个外国投资者，在解决问题排序上，您可能被排在最后。政府关心的是系统上的东
西，他们不关心你是一个外国投资者。如果你这样做，那就是纯粹的赌博。我的另一个问题是这是另一个雷曼时刻吗? 这
是中国的雷曼时刻吗? 我的回答总是否定的，因为它们之间的联系并不相同。

Bruce: Speaking of speculative investments, we've touched on that a little bit, I want to talk more about kind of Bitcoin and digital
currencies. How do you look at Bitcoin? Is it a gold replacement? Is it a storehouse of value? Is it the currency of the future? Is that
something that we should be concerned about? Is that just you know, more risk off behavior based on stock market volatility, but I
love to kind of go around the horn with everybody and get everybody's opinion on crypto and digital assets.

Bruce: 说到投机性投资，我们已经谈到一点，我想谈谈比特币和数字货币。你如何看待比特币? 它是黄金替代品吗? 存
储价值? 未来的货币吗? 值得我们关注吗? 你知道，更多的风险规避行为是基于股票市场的波动，但我喜欢了解大家对加
密和数字资产的看法。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
Page 26 第26页