Page 22 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

金融论坛 Forum2022 加中金融

Steve: When I thought about reset, it was very similar where Dawn Steve: 当我想到重置的时候，它和 Dawn 说的类似。很多
was going. A lot of the stuff that worked really well, you could 东西都很有效，如果你还需要买报纸，玩飞镖板，你基
basically blindfold yourself, if you still have to stock pages of a 本上可以蒙住自己的眼睛，如果股价下跌，你就加倍买
newspaper, throw a dart board at it, and it would probably work 入，最终可能会上涨。我认为我们将会看到一个不同的
for you. And if it went down, well, then you double down and buy 货币环境，当然也会看到一个不同的财政环境。我知道
some more, and it'll probably go up eventually. We can't stress 很多人会辞职，因为他们会重新设定生活中的优先次后。
enough how I think we're going to be seeing a different monetary 这就是看待这个问题的两种方式。我对可持续性也非常
and certainly different fiscal environment. People among the great 接近 Dawn。今年，我们公司的一件大事是我们推出了一
resignation, because they reset their priorities. So those are the
two ways to look at it. Again, This year, one of the big things that 款叫做 Impact 的应用程序，这是一款 ESG 应用程序。你
our firm introduced what we call the Impact app, which is an ESG 可以查看你所拥有的投资组合或你正在考虑购买的公司
App. You could check the ESG standards of your portfolio that you 的 ESG 标准。我从没想过会发生这种事。如果你五年前告
own or companies that you're thinking of buying. I actually never 诉我我们会安排这个，我肯定会嘲笑你。但它不仅仅是
thought this was going to happen. If you would have told me this 一种营销工具。是我们的首要任务。这不仅仅是获得委
five years ago that we'd be setting this up, I would have laughed at 托投资的另一种方式，这真的是我们相信的东西。所以
you. But it's a thing and it's not just a marketing tool. There is a 我想说如果 IB 也把可持续发展列入策略范围，我想你会
team of people to make it real. And so it's become a priority with 在更多的经济和社会领域看到这一点。
us. It's not just another way to get commissioned dollars, it's really
something we believe in. And so I will say that, if Interactive Brokers Wang: 我不太理解重置的概念，我们在整个世界面临着一
is somewhere in the sustainability spectrum, I think you'll see that 场冲击，流行病冲击，它改变了普通人民的行为和政府
from a lot more segments of the economy and society. 政策。但对于这个问题的回应是，你是否能够改变行为
改变政策，在永久的基础上，这是重置概念所暗示的。
Wang: I don't quite understand the concept of reset, and we are 我有一些怀疑，包括通货膨胀的前景，事实上，我相信
in the entire world facing pandemic shock, that have changed the 通货膨胀是暂时的。所以我认为，由于受到的冲击是如
behaviors of common peoples and the government policy. But in 此巨大，反应是如此强烈，相当戏剧化。人们倾向于相
response to this is about whether you can change the behavior and 信范式的转变，但我仍然相信这只是一种冲击反应模式
change policy on a permanent basis implied by this concept of
reset. I have some doubt, including the outlook for inflation, in fact, 不太可能在经济或社会上留下永久的印记。如果我们回
I believe the inflation is transitory. So I think because of the shock 头再看，你应该说，在三，五年后，我们可能会因为这
come off is so huge, and the reaction is so strong, quite dramatic. 么戏剧化而笑出来。
And people tend to believe there is a paradigm shift, but I still Bruce: 中国对大型科技公司、阿里巴巴、腾讯等，甚至
believe it is a just a shock and reaction pattern will unlikely make a 是一些教育公司的市场行动已经被广泛报道。所以问题
permanent mark on the economy on a society. If we look coming 是这只是正常的监管整合吗? 还是说这是一种新的监管模
back to revisit this, you should say in three years, five years, 式的开始，企业和投资者将需要接受这种模式，并开始
probably will be laughing out ourselves for being so dramatic.
以一种不同的方式应对? 你对此有什么看法?
Bruce: There’s been well publicized clamp downs on Chinese big
tech, and Alibaba, Tencent, etc, and even the some of the Wang: 是的，这是个好问题。因为这个问题不容易回答，
education companies. So the question is, is this just normal 我认为这是一个正常的有中国特色的监管整合。与此同
regulatory consolidation? Or is this the beginning of a new 时，我也理解为什么许多中国观察家认为这是一种格式
regulatory paradigm that businesses and investors are going to 转变。这里有一种认知差距。这种认知差距与中国政府
need to come to terms with and start dealing with in a different 实施重大政策改革的方式有关。当中国当局实施政策变
way? 化通常有运动风格, 即在短期内有震慑效果， 使政策措
施的实质目的符合经济和社会的长期效益。因此，我国
Wang: Yes. this is a good question. Because it's not easy to answer, 在这方面的政策和条件还有很大的改善空间。就连中国
I think is a normal regulatory consolidation, but with Chinese
characteristics. At the same time, I also understand why many 当局自己也承认这些缺点。但这是中国的现实，短期内
China observers think it is a paradigm shift. I think there is a 不太可能改变。所以我们必须接受并习惯它。作为一个
perception gap here. And this perception gap has to do with the 资深的中国观察者，我们有时甚至可以利用这种认知差
way of Chinese authorities implementing major policy changes. 距，这可能会导致市场的巨大波动，从而带来投资机会。
And when Chinese authority implement policy changes it typically
done in a campaign style, even with a shock and awe effect in the
short run, even when the substance of the policy measures is well
intended, and even justified in and of themselves for the long term
benefit of the economy and society. So there are lots of room for
the policy and condition be improved in China. Even Chinese
authorities themselves, acknowledge those shortcomings. And but
this is reality in China, that will unlikely change in the short run. So
we have to live with and get used to it. And we as a veteran China
observer can sometimes even take advantage of this perception
gap, which may cause huge volatility of the markets and therefore
and investment opportunities.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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