Page 11 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

加中金融 宏观经济 MacroEcon

But I think that really we have to expect more volatility, more 但情况就是这样。许多投资者从未真正看到过紧缩周期。
air pockets and that not every dip might be a buying 想想看我们看到的上一次紧缩周期是在全球金融危机之
opportunity. I still do believe that there is the metaphorical Fed 前 2007 年，2008 年，2009 年，记住这一点，已经有过几
put the level at which the federal government steps in and 次尝试。是的，美联储在某些时期提高了利率，然后又
other central banks will step in and avoid a major market crisis. 收回了利率。还有“缩减恐慌”(taper tantrum)，即美联
One thing about the Fed is, we don't know where it's struck. I 储停止购买债券，市场陷入恐慌。但实际上并没有出现
couldn't tell you where the strike on the Fed put is, We learned 一个持续的紧缩周期。银行在过去 15 年的大部分时间里
pretty much covered that that strike was down 20 or 25%. Is 系统地试图减少资产负债表。这至少可能会导致市场波
that the case now, remember monetary policy operates with a
leg is the fat you know with the Fed no longer just pumping 动。我认为我们已经习惯了市场稳步上涨的想法，每一
money in blindly. Does that change the strike on the 次下跌都是买入的机会。举个例子，如果你 18 个月前开
metaphorical fed. And that is something you have to think 始投资。你从来没有见过一个你不应该逢低买入的市场，
about in terms of your risk tolerance going into 2022. Also, we 这显然并不应该适用于所有的股票投资。
really haven't seen a situation where there's been inflation. I 但我认为，我们确实需要预计更多的波动性，更多的气
mean the inflation number that came out in the US yesterday. 垫，并不是每次下跌都可能是买入机会。我仍然相信，
We haven't seen that number in most of our investing careers, 为了避免了重大的市场危机，美联储设定了联邦政府干
most of people's lifetimes. And where then does the fight
against inflation affect resource stocks or a heavy economy, 预和其他央行干预的水平。关于美联储的一件事是，我
such as Canada. 们不知道它会在哪里出手干预，市场下跌至 20%还是 25%。
现在的情况是这样的，货币政策的作用是让你知道美联
So these are things you have to start thinking about also how 储不再只是盲目地注入资金。这是你 2022 年必须考虑到
will higher interest rates affect speculation, we're at a point 你的风险承受能力。而且通货膨胀会怎样。在大多数的
now where we still weren't very negative real interest rates 投资生涯中，在大多数人的一生中，我们都没有见过这
have a lot of economists, and I would argue that one the 样的数字。那么抗击通胀的斗争又会对资源库存或加拿
reasons why we have this growth in hyper speculative assets, 大这样的重经济体产生什么影响呢?
such as cryptocurrencies and ft is in the like are the result of
extraordinarily easy money. It's very easy to speculate when 所以这些东西你也不得不开始考虑更高的利率将如何影
the risk free rate of return is negative. So you're, you're 响投机。我们现在处在经济学家认定实际利率还不是非
incentivized to take risks. And, let me not be too dismissive of 常负数, 我认为高度投机性资产的增长, 比如加密货币等都
crypto because, as I mentioned before, the 1999 period, when 是极其宽松的货币政策的结果。当无风险收益率为负时，
the internet was the theme. And here I do believe blockchain 投机是很容易的。所以你被激励去冒险。让我不要太轻
is an investable theme. It's something that it's a step forward 视加密技术，因为就像我之前提到的，在 1999 年的时期，
technologically, it's something that will be with us going 互联网是主题。我相信区块链是一个值得投资的主题。
forward. But, again, like the 90s, to think about what happened 它是技术上的一个进步，它将伴随我们向前发展。但是
to the internet stocks, I can pretty much only think of one of
the original survivors that is above where it was in 1999 and 就像 90 年代一样，想想互联网股票发生了什么，我只能
that of course is Amazon, the exception that proves the rule. 想到一个最初的幸存者，它高于 1999 年的水平，那就是
亚马逊，亚马逊也证明了我刚刚说的技术进步规则。事
Another thing, by the way, is what ended the internet bubble. 实证明，正如那些最大的支持者所认为的那样，互联网
It was the Fed removing liquidity that they had added in 的绝大多数都是令人惊叹的伟大。
advance, and I know the world central banks, but they added
to avoid the y2k problem. So, I'm not going to say that we're 另一件事，顺便说一下，是什么终结了互联网泡沫。是
going to look at a period, look back at this, and say this is 美联储取消了他们事先增加的流动性，我知道世界各国
identical to what we saw in the late 90s, but it's right to be a 央行，但他们增加流动性是为了避免千年虫问题。所以，
bit more risk averse going forward. Interestingly, there is one 我不会说我们会回顾一个时期，然后说这和我们在 90 年
central bank that seems to be bucking the trend right now, 代末看到的是一样的，但规避未来可见的风险是必要的。
as we've seen out of China recently. They cut their reserve 有趣的是，目前有一家央行似乎在逆潮流而动，正如我
requirement, they've added some monetary stimulus recently. 们最近在中国看到的那样，我非常密切地关注到他们降
Now, that is more out of weakness than out of strength 低了款准备金率，最近增加了一些货币刺激措施。这更
because I think they're very afraid of Evergrand. If they 多的可能由于经济疲软。因为恒大事件让人心有余悸。
remember when a company defaults, those assets, you know 如果当公司违约时，他们发行的债券这些资产都是负债。
their liability is somebody's asset, the bonds that they issue. 随着资产缩水会产生通缩。因此，尽管我确认中国央行
And as assets vanish, that's deflationary. So, while I do think
that the Bank of China has been one of the outliers of recent 最近的货币政策跟其他人背道而驰，我认为这更多的是
weeks. I think that's more out of a position of weakness than a 出于补救而不是优势。
position of strength. 那么接下来，我们还投资吗? 我们是否正处于一个更有可

So going forward, what's the takeaway here. Are we investing? 能看到更多波动的时期?我会说，是的。市场还会上涨吗?
Are we in a period of more likely to see more volatility? I would 当然，无论形势如何，总有一些股票会从中受益，但我
argue Yes. Can the market still rise? Sure, there's always stocks 不认为你会像我们所看到的那样，期待它只会直线上涨。
that benefit no matter what the situation, but I don't think you
can expect that it will be the straight line going forward that
we've seen.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
Page 11 第11页