Page 6 - CCFA Journal - Sixth Issue

宏观经济 MacroEcon 加中金融

The third reason is falling private investment, as private firms 第三个原因是私人投资的下降，因为私人企业占中国投
are responsible for around 60% of investment in China. Where 资的 60%左右。很多人一直误解民营企业对中国经济的重
a lot of people continue to get it wrong is on how important 要性。他们其是经济、创新、投资、就业和税收的真正
private firms are to the Chinese economy. They are the real 驱动力。如果私人公司停止投资，那肯定会造成很大的
drivers of the economy, innovation, investment, jobs, tax 影响。你可以看到私人投资的减速。经济减速主要集中
revenue. If private firms stop investing, that's definitely a big 在制造业。同样，去杠杆化也是原因。当国家开始从经
impact. Deceleration in private investment, much of that 济中收回信贷时，这往往会不成比例地影响到私营企业，
deceleration has been focused on the manufacturing sector. 对中小企业的影响更大。还有中美贸易战。我认为它对
And again, similar reasons are fairly obvious: deleveraging.
When the state begins to withdraw credit from the economy, 中国有很大的影响。你回到 2019 年的名义 GDP 数据，一
this tends to disproportionately affect private firms, more so 个相当强劲的减速对贸易负面影响深远，新冠病毒就像
than the SMEs. And the second one is the China-US trade war. 它在世界各地所做的那样破坏了一切，对商业和消费者
There's a lot of debate about how much it impacted China, I 信心都是一种打击，因为没有人知道接下来会发生什么。
believe it had a big impact on China, you go back to the 第四个原因是房地产。根据 2021 年 10 月的数据，令人惊
nominal GDP numbers in 2019 you begin to see a pretty strong 讶的是，直到 9 月房地产投资都保持得非常好，仅略低于
deceleration, which was hard on trade. But most importantly, covid - 19 之前的趋势。但需要知道的是，投资数字将开
it was really hard on business and consumer confidence, but
especially business confidence because nobody knew what 始减少。因为恒大褪去光环，对中国房地产市场的心理
was going to happen next. And whenever business confidence 产生了巨大的影响。而另一方面，新住房市场和二手房
disrupts businesses, they stop investing and I think that's a 市场量上升，实际价格在下降。在新的住房市场中，70
really big factor there and then, of course, COVID disrupted 个城市中有 52 个城市的房价逐月下降。而由受政策影响
everything as it did all over the world. 较小更能代表中国的房地产市场的二手房市场，在 70 个
城市中有 64 个城市的房价下跌。这个意义上超了 2014 的
And then we get to the fourth reason: real estate. The data 历史跌幅。除了房地产价格下跌外，我们还看到了销售
goes to October 2021, which surprisingly shows that up until 额的下降， 2020 年的不错的销售势头被恒大打破。可以
September, real estate investment held up remarkably well, as 看到 2021 年的销售额在 8 月左右低于 2019 年的水平。如
it's just a little bit below the pre-COVID trend. But one of the
things to know about is that those investment will begin to tail 果你是一个买家，每个人都知道价格在下跌，你不会买，
off back, as I'm pretty sure that in the immediate future is 相反如果你是卖家，你会持有。如果你今天可以花 100 美
going to bend downwards. And that’s because of the whole 元买东西但你相信明天会花 90 美元，你就会等明天。这
Evergrand fiasco that had a really strong impact on the real 就是现在正在发生的事情。投资方面也将受到很多新实
estate psyche in China, where it's lost its mojo. Basically, these 施的房地产法规的限制。
two slides here show the new housing market and the second-
hand housing market, where the line goes up, prices are
effectively falling. So in the new housing market, prices are
now down on a month over month basis in 52 out of 70 cities.
Whereas the second-hand housing market, which is more
representative of the real estate market in China because it's
less policy induced, had prices down in 64 out of 70 cities. So
it’s quite possible that this indicator will set a new record and
it will eclipse the 2014 feat. In addition to prices falling in real
estate, we also see that the amount of sales are falling, and
you can see how 2020 sales are doing quite well. Up until
Evergrande became a front-page story in the media here. And
then 2021 sales dip below the 2019 levels in August or so, and
that's a fairly standard behaviour. If you're a buyer, and you
believe that prices are falling and everybody knows prices are
falling now, you're not going to buy, and instead, you're going
to hold. Since if you can buy something for $100 today but you
believe it's going to cost $90 tomorrow, you're going to wait
for tomorrow. So that's what's happening right now and I can't
see how that doesn't have a big impact on investment, and the
investment side is also going to be pinched by a lot of the new
enforcement in the 2020s Real Estate regulations.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE February 2022
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