Page 71 - Clackamas County Watertourism Strategic Plan. Final.v3

STRATEGIC PLAN FOR WATER-BASED TOURISM IN CLACKAMAS COUNTY, OREGON THE PEOPLE
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The most conservative estimation is approximately 3,391 trips, or lockage, per
year. This represents only 5% of the market who responded affirmatively to taking
at least one trip at no cost. The upper bound estimation of trips is 32,574 or 53%
of the market size. Neither of these are likely scenarios. The estimation of 3,391 at
$20 is not probable because the actual cost would likely be lower than that. Total
trips paid at 32,574 trips is likely an overestimation due to double counting. The
actual market demand lies between these two bounds. The middle between these
boundaries is 17,981 trips. Using the estimation 15,708 trips at $5 is close to the
middle and a reasonable estimation. Table 3-25 shows the results. Since 32,574
trips seems unreasonable to the author based on professional experience, an
estimated lockage slightly less than 15,000 is advisable for planning purposes. The
estimations were based on a total boater population of 166,668 and an average
party size of 2.7 per trip. The total revenue was calculated by multiplying the
Willingness to Pay by the estimated demand for lockage. Generally, as cost per trip
rises the total revenue decreases, except for $10 per trip which generates the most
revenue. Total trips paid is calculated at $5 per trip and generates a maximum of
$162,872 annually.

The results here show a general estimation of the market demand for recreational
use of the locks. It is beyond the scope of this project to conduct a complete
market study for lock usage. Such a study would involve more detailed primary
data collection from likely users, focus groups to determine market behaviors and
preferences, estimation of market area, and analysis to improve marketing
effectiveness.

There are two known past studies on the potential market for recreational locks usage. The first study was completed in 2005 using data from 1998 on actual usage. This showed
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recreation trips between 1192 and 2716 . If water-based recreation participation has increased about 3% per year, then these usage estimations would be closer to 5,400 today.
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This is still much lower than the 15,000 estimated here. A second study was prepared in 2014 and relies on historic usage from 2000 to 2011 . Lock usage after the year 2000
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“dropped precipitously ” due to the Army Corps of Engineers lack of funding. In 2005 the locks fell to caretaker status and in 2011 the locks closed completely. Usage data from
this period is not a reasonable estimate of market demand and should not be compared to the estimates provided here.