Page 58 - Fortune-November 01, 2018

ar tifi c i al intelli gence

IT’S TIME TO GET REAL ABOUT A.I.’S FUTURE,
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a subject in desperate need of discipline.
The technology’s mind-blowing pos-
sibilities have apparently inebriated
various seers, who take two routes to
fantasyland: propagating boldly precise
forecasts of jobs to be spawned and de-
stroyed years hence, or spinning tales of
A.I. transforming our world into a heaven
(or hell). Instead, we wanted to confront
the realities of how A.I. is changing busi-
ness—minus the melodrama.
On the chief source of A.I.-induced
anxiety—employment effects—the
reality is that no one knows or can know
what’s ahead, not even approximately.
The reason is that we can never foresee
human ingenuity, all the ways in which
millions of motivated entrepreneurs and
managers worldwide will apply rap-
idly improving technology. Postmaster
General Arthur Summerfield predicted
confidently in 1959 that mail would
soon be delivered by packing letters into
guided missiles, the wonder tech of the
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day. A growing economy meant more
letters, and the future for postal work-
ers seemed bright. It was, for a while.
The possibility that mail would cease
to be written on paper never occurred
to Summerfield, though the necessary
technologies for email, texting, and the
cell network existed in rudimentary form
or were being developed. We risk missing
the boat in the same way with A.I.
The second reality to remember is that
A.I.’s eventual uses will be determined
largely by market forces. Earnest discus-
sions of how A.I. can be directed to make
the world a utopia miss that point. They
recall RCA chief David Sarnoff’s long-
ago prediction that the coming of color
TV would enable people to see fine art in
their homes. That sounded wonderful, but
nobody wanted it for such high-minded
uses. A.I. will be used by companies
and consumers for countless practical
WAYS A.I. purposes, most of them modest, and the
cumulative effect can’t be foreseen. As we
try to guess A.I.’s future, the key will be to
IS CHANGING thinklikeself-interestedpeople (including
both good and bad guys) in the real world.
No bad guys here, though. These 25 ex-
BUSINESS amples of A.I. at work are beneficial, even
inspiring—and they’re real. —Geoff Colvin

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