Page 23 - Destination Risk and Resilience Manual-Namibia

DESTINATION RISK AND RESILIENCE MANUAL

3.1.1 Hydro-meteorological/climatological from central Angola into the Namibian floodplains. In
risks addition, north-eastern Namibia is also vulnerable to
flooding due to the hydrological regime of the Oka-
Namibia is vulnerable to climate change. The IPCC vango river system. These floods are associated with an
Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2022) predicts that the increased risk of water-borne diseases such as cholera
annual mean global near-surface temperatures will and malaria as well as the destruction of infrastructure
average from 1.1 degrees Celsius to 1.7 degrees Celsius that is critical to the tourism industry. The loss of in-
higher than pre-industrial levels between 2022 and frastructure due to climate change has been pointed
2026. Namibia is also affected by these trends. Namib- out by Wilhelm (2012) who estimated that annual loss-
ia’s projected temperatures are expected to continue es due to climate change could be as high as 6% of the
increasing by as much as 4 degrees Celsius over the country’s GDP. While the droughts and floods affect
next century – projections that are way above the glob- the generality of the economic sectors in the country,
al average (Thomson, 2021). An increase in tempera- the tourism sector is likely to be hard hit because of
ture is likely to have a negative impact on liveability, the negative impact of climate change on flora and
as few tourists may tolerate such high temperatures, fauna – the bedrock of the industry- and on other nat-
hence negatively impacting on the number of tourists ural attractions (Keja-Kaereho and Tjizu, 2019). Thus,
visiting the country. Another risk driver is the exist- climate change – through its influence on tempera-
ence of persistent east winds that affect areas such as ture, droughts and floods is a significant natural hazard
Swakopmund and Walvis Bay and are disruptive to the to the tourism sector of the Erongo Region as well as
tourism industry. Namibia in general.

As indicated in Table 2 above, climate change-related While Namibia’s relatively dry climate has largely pre-
risks were identified as a major challenge by 20% of the served tourism attractions such as rock paintings (e.g.,
study participants. While some parts of the Erongo Re- at Twyfelfontein, Brandberg, Spitzkoppe), researchers
gion have moderate temperatures (e.g., Swakopmund, are apprehensive that some of the rock paintings and
Walvis Bay, Henties Bay), some of the attractions (e.g. engravings are deteriorating due to weathering, bio-
Gobabeb, Sossusvlei) are already hot and are likely logical agents, and animal action (Nankela, 2020). The
to be less hospitable. In addition to less hospitable degradation of such important and invaluable historic
temperatures, increased temperatures are likely to sites is likely to affect the tourism industry in future if
result in the decrease in precipitation by as much as necessary preservation steps are not taken.
14 percent in most of the country. As an already dry
country, such a drastic reduction in precipitation will
negatively impact the tourism industry as most places 3.1.2 Coastal risks
will find it difficult to have adequate water for basic
use. Barnes, McGregor and Alberts (2012) postulated In general, coastal hazards are characterised by land-
that the Karoo, Savanna and the north-eastern Wood- forms and processes triggered by gravity, running wa-
land biomes which are home to most of the country’s ter and by the action of the sea (Brandolini, Faccini and
wildlife will likely become drier, hence negatively im- Piccazzo, 2006). This includes the erosion of beaches
pacting on the tourism sector and possibly reducing and dunes causing damage to property, humans and/
the sector’s income by a quarter in the next 70 years. or the environment. Though Namibia is blessed with
Reduced inflows into the Etosha pans, for example, is beautiful coastal areas that are an attraction and con-
likely to affect the natural springs around the area and tribute substantially towards tourism, climate change
consequently negatively impact the breeding of the and its impact on sea level rise as well as increased
flamingos. coastal waves is a potential risk to the sector through
increased coastal erosion and the higher costs of main-
Climate change is also envisaged to increase the fre- taining waterfronts (Crawford and Terton, 2016). About
quency of droughts and floods in the country. At the 30% of the interviewed experts in the tourism industry
turn of the century, Dilley (2003) reported that the indicated that coral reef destruction was a major issue
frequency of floods and droughts in the country had in Namibia, especially in the Erongo Region. In addi-
dramatically increased. Hence 20% of the participants tion, climate change is likely to increase the incidence
reported droughts as a major challenge in the Erongo of coastal inundation, affecting marine species as well
Region (Table 2). Beyond this region, north-central as destroying wetlands and seasonal oshanas that cur-
Namibia frequently experiences seasonal floods be- rently are home to a diversity of flora and fauna that
cause of the Cuvelai basin which accumulates water are key to the tourism industry.

23