Page 70 - Life & Land Use on the Bahrain Islands (Curtis E Larsen)

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to relate these tombs to an average population size during the Barbar period.
Although this approach will be revised in the future, the population information
derived at this early stage of research can be useful.
The Barbar period tombs belong in the Ur m through Isin-Larsa range, ca.
2100-1800 B.C. The greatest number of Barbar occupation sites, however, appear
to belong to the Barbar n phase, ca. 2000-1800 B.C. For estimating purposes, the
maximum time range for the use of these tombs is 300 years while the minimum is
200 years. This gives an average death rate of 573 deaths per year for the
maximum range and 860 deaths per year if only the Barbar n phase is considered.
A derivation of a population from these data is more tenuous and must depend upon
assumed birth and death rates for a period without actual demographic data.
Birthrates are the easier of the two to estimate. As the Ehrlichs and Holden note
(Ehrlich, Ehrlich, and Holden 1973), birthrates can be expected to fluctuate within a
narrower range through time than is the case with death rates. They estimate a
birthrate of 45-50 births per thousand for the prehistoric period, while the death
rate may have been only .02 per thousand below the birthrate. An assessment of
modern birth and death rates for Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the gulf states shows
death rates to be quite low in comparison with births (Ehrlich, Ehrlich, and Holden
1973). The modern birthrate for Bahrain is 50 per 1000 per year as opposed to only
9 deaths per 1000 per year. This birthrate is also consistent with those from the
other gulf states and Saudi Arabia.
For the purposes of this general study the modern birth rate is assumed
to be a reasonable figure for 2000 B.C. With such rates in mind, an average
population for Bahrain in the Ur HI-Isin-Larsa periods would be:

Average Population = Average Deaths per year x 1000
Birth Rate - 0.02

= 573 x 1000 = 11,464
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