Page 71 - Life & Land Use on the Bahrain Islands (Curtis E Larsen)

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For only the 200-year period involved in the Isin-Larsa range, the average
population would have been:

Average Population = 860 x 1000 = 17,206
49.98

In both cases the estimated growth rate is .05 percent as compared with
the modern rate of 3.0 percent. These figures are estimates but they agree well
with FrfShlich (1983) who estimated that an average living population size of 18,000
with a life expectancy at birth of 30 years will produce 150,000 deaths in 250 years
time. We lack, for example, a concrete record of immigration and emigration or
any firm reconstruction of infant mortality patterns. Thus, these figures are
presented as heuristic devices to aid in the development of more critical models.
Barbar period Dilmun was described as both a city and a country by
Kramer (1963). If this was indeed the case, the size of the city would also be of
interest. The major problem is selecting the urban center of that period. Only one
large occupation site has been described. This is Qala'at al-Bahrain. McNicoll and
Roaf (n.d.) suggested that a better choice would be the present village of Bilad
al-Qadim (site 151), based upon the fact that the site has a better natural harbor
than Qala’at al-Bahrain. Nonetheless, Qala’at al-Bahrain is the only walled
settlement known and until further evidence is presented, it must be seen as the
best choice.
The area enclosed by the Barbar n city wall at Qala'at al-Bahrain is
approximately 41.7 hectares as calculated from the published plan of the site
(Hawkes 1974). This area provides a basis for estimating a Barbar II urban
population. Adams (1965), for example, has used site area to attempt the
reconstruction of population trends in Iraq by using a population density of 200
persons per hectare. Kramer (1978) has determined an actual density of 132-139
persons per hectare in a sample of Kurdish villages. For comparison a modern
population density for Bahraini villages was derived by selecting villages at random
and calculating the number of persons present within the total area of each village.
Population data were obtained from the 1971 Bahrain census while village areas
were scaled from data of the Ministry of Municipalities and Agriculture