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業界動向/InDusTry TrenDs

Commercial Aerospace: Opportunities

Arise & Challenges Ahead

Based on 2016 Global Aerospace and Defense Sector Outlook by Deloitte Touche Tohmastsu, the global
commercial aerospace sector is likely to experience strong revenue and operating earnings growth in 2016
and it is projected to double over the next two decades. However, there are challenges ahead that all industry
players should be aware of.

Current Overview & Prosperous Future Outlook

Passenger travel demand in countries experiencing
continued wealth creation primarily in India, China,
the Middle East and other countries in the Asia-Pacific
region are driving global passenger leisure and business
travel growth and have increasing freight transportation
requirements. Global revenue passenger kilometers
(RPK’s) have experienced significant growth over the
past three decades driving greater utilization of aircraft
and resulting in more sold out flights. Passenger and
freight traffic are expected to grow at an average annual
growth rate of 4.6% and 4.4% respectively over the next
20 years contributing to increases in aircraft production. Kanefusa_PM#102.pdf 1 10/14/2559 BE 08:49
Airbus Group and The Boeing company have a combined competitor may successfully enter this burgeoning market
order book of over 12,400 aircraft as at the end of the third in the next 20 years. Heightened competition is expected
quarter of 2015 which represents an estimated nine years’ to affect the pace of technology innovation, replacement
worth of current annual production. cycles, and aircraft pricing. Airline operators may have
more product choices requiring original equipment
The total demand for new aircraft production is estimated manufacturers (OEMs) and their suppliers to meet
to be 35,318 aircraft (excluding regional jets) over the next adjusted pricing expectations. Competition will likely
20 years. Figure 1 illustrates sales order and production increase and premium pricing for aircraft will likely also be
history of commercial aircraft from 1981 to 2015 showing impacted by technology innovation by creating products
a 228.7% increase in production during this period. which are less expensive to operate (e.g. fuel efficiency,
maintenance, and repair) and possess new and improved
Using a seven-year moving average, production levels technologies that passengers prefer. C
over the last 20 years have increased 104.9% since M
1995. Over the next decade by 2025, commercial aircraft It is estimated that in 2016, 1,420 large commercial aircraft Y
annual production levels are anticipated to increase an will be produced which is 40.5% more than production
estimated 26.6%. With such growth expected, there are five years ago. With planned production rates increasing CM
two significant trends and challenges to consider including for large commercial aircraft producers over the next two MY
the entrance of new global competitors to the existing years it is likely that in five years (by 2021) the sector will CY
duopoly and the impact on the supply chain. be producing 1,617 aircraft, a 15.7% increase from 2015. CMY
Figure 2 shows aircraft production since 2009, as well as K
Competition Challenges the estimated production volume by year over the next
two decades, which illustrates the outstanding growth this
This sector has largely been a duopoly since 1997. Prior to subsector has enjoyed.
that, at least three or four companies served the industry.
Going forward, it is likely that at least one additional Due to market growth it is likely that new aircraft production ENQUIRY NO. 102 598

18 Asia Pacific Plant Management