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エネルギー展望/EnErgy OutlOOk

Fossil Fuels: Still the World’s

Best Friend

Fossil fuels include petroleum, coal and natural gas. In fact, the whole world is dependent on fossil fuels to fulfil
daily energy needs. Although adoption of renewable energy sources has increased significantly over the last
decade, it will still take some time to reduce our dependency on fossil fuels in accordance with BP Energy Outlook
2030 which provides some very interesting insights into the mid-term trends of energy use. The fact remains that
world energy consumption will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels for the foreseeable future.

As the world population grows (despite at a declining showing little growth while the use of renewables
rate) and the global economy grows more rapidly, expands significantly from a low base (but still only
overall energy use is expected to grow another about 7% of the total).
39% over the period. With the massive Chinese
and Indian economies now using energy Although carbon intensity in non-OECD
increasingly efficiently, the intensity of countries will decline, much of the
overall energy usage will decline additional energy to fuel growth will come
following the trends previously from coal. It is expected that overall
witnessed in Europe and North global carbon dioxide emissions
America. BP expects the US, will increase by 27%
Chinese, Indian and world by 2030. OECD
economies to converge emissions
at an energy intensity should be 10%
of around 0.1 toe lower but will be
(ton of oilequivalent) overshadowed by
per t hous and growth in emerging
dollars of GDP (PPP economies. The
rates) with the overall trend is still
trend continuing upwards albeit at
downwards the a lower rate.
reafter.
For transport, oil
The BP analysis is still expected
highlights an to be dominant
interesting fact but plateauing in
about the likely demand in the 2020s.
mix of primary Biofuels are forecasted
energy sources. to provide 9% of fuel
Formerly dominated by for transport by 2030
coal, following the Industrial (currently providing 6%). To
Revolution, oil took the largest quote directly from the report,
share as an energy source over “Rail, electric vehicles and plug-in
the last half century and still does hybrids, and the use of compressed
but only by a small margin. It is projected natural gas in transport is likely to grow,
coal, oil and gas will be utilized equally providing but without making a material contribution to total
around 80% of total energy consumption by 2030. transport before 2030.”
Hydro, nuclear and renewables (including biofuels)
are expected to provide equal shares of the remaining There is plenty of insight contained within the report and
energy consumed with hydro and nuclear energy while it represents just one point of view, though a highly

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