Page 5 - AsiaElec Week 45 2021

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec

in terms of investment levels, with offshore wind towards 2030 as feed-in-tariffs (FiTs) phase out
investment continuing to grow and O&G invest- from next year onwards.
ment declining, said Fløtre. China’s limited, shallow-water offshore O&G
The US offshore wind sector is expected to sector has seen flat investment levels of around
see the fastest growth in investment, albeit from $5bn annually. At the same time, offshore wind
very low levels in 2020. Just 42 MW has so far investments have grown rapidly since 2015,
been installed in the form of two small pro- thanks in part to supportive policies. As a result,
jects off Massachusetts and Virginia, the latter China experienced its crossing point in 2017.
installed in 2020. Although offshore wind activity is likely to slow
The US has seen declining O&G investment once current investments tail off, the sector is
levels, with capex levels expected to fall below expected to remain larger than offshore O&G
$10 billion from 2023 onwards. At the same time, throughout this decade. China will be the world’s
the Biden administration has set an ambitious largest offshore wind market by 2030, with 58
federal offshore wind target of 30 GW by 2030. GW of installed capacity, said the report.
Rystad Energy expects the US to fall short of its The offshore wind industry in Asia (exclud-
declared target, but its forecast of 21 GW by 2030 ing China) remains in its infancy, but capacity is
will still entail rapidly increasing investments to predicted to see rapid growth until 2030. In the
between $8bn and $10bn from 2025 to 2030. short to medium term, ‘inter-tidal’ – or near-
Although offshore wind investment is shore, shallow-water – wind farms in Vietnam
expected to fall below that of offshore O&G in and conventional offshore wind in Taiwan are
2030 in the US, following a slight recovery in the expected to drive capital investment until 2025.
latter sector, offshore wind will again see larger Rystad says it expects Japan and South Korea to
capex levels than O&G after 2030, as upstream add most to sectoral growth in the second half of
O&G investment tails off. the decade. With declining offshore O&G invest-
Offshore wind activity is surging in China, ments, the crossing point is forecast to occur in
though the country will see investments decline 2028, said the analysis.™

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