Page 10 - MEOG Week 39

MEOG POLICY MEOG

Zanganeh admits forging export

documents to dodge sanctions

IRAN IRAN’S oil minister has openly admitted forg- a bargaining chip in its trade war dealings with
ing oil documents to hide the origin of Iranian the US Trump administration.
cargoes of crude that might otherwise not find a Iran, of course, will also hope for a favourable
market because of US sanctions. outcome in the early November US presiden-
“What we export is not under Iran’s name. tial election. Should Joe Biden prevail against
The documents are changed over and over, Donald Trump, there is every prospect of Teh-
as well as specifications,” Bijan Zanganeh was ran enjoying substantially better relations with
quoted as saying in parliament by the website Washington and the likely removal of US sanc-
of the state-owned National Iranian Oil Co. tions on its oil and other parts of its economy.
(NIOC).
Since early last year, the US has been attempt- Iraq’s sanction extended
ing to use sanctions to meet its stated goal of Meanwhile, on September 24, the US renewed a
driving all Iranian crude shipments off world sanctions waiver that allows Iraq to buy gas from
export markets. Earlier this week, Zanganeh Iran, while at the same time urging Baghdad to
described the ultra-aggressive economic policy use the provided 60 days to take “meaningful
as like waging a “war without blood”. actions” to reduce its energy dependence on
Working out how much oil Iran has contin- neighbouring Tehran.
ued to export on the grey market despite Wash- Washington has repeatedly extended the
ington’s efforts is a complex question for analysts. waiver for Iraq to use indispensable Iranian
On September 25, Reuters reported that three energy supplies for its struggling power grid and
assessments based on tanker tracking showed dilapidated utilities, usually for periods of 90 or
that this month Iranian oil exports have risen 120 days.
sharply. Iran provides one-third of Iraq’s gas supplies,
despite the fact that the Iranian companies that
Way up the Iraqis import from are sanctioned by the US.
“Exports are way up right now. We are see- Official data shows that Iraq’s generation
ing close to 1.5 million bpd in both crude and capacity stands at around 16,000 MW, not cov-
condensate so far this month,” Samir Madani, ering demand for 24-30,000 MW to keep the
co-founder of TankerTrackers, told the news lights on.
agency. “These are levels we haven’t seen in a “The waiver ensures that Iraq is able to meet
year and a half.” its short-term energy needs while it takes steps
The amount was twice that of August, to reduce its dependence on Iranian energy
TankerTrackers data reportedly showed, and imports,” a US State Department official said.
around 11% of it was ultra light crude, known “We believe it is possible within the 60 days
as condensate. for the government of Iraq to take meaningful
TankerTrackers, which tracks shipments and actions to promote energy self-sufficiency...,”
oil storage, was also reported as saying that its he said, without specifying what those actions
data showed almost half of Iranian exports were should be.™
picked up by foreign vessels via ship-to-ship
transfers, making it difficult to determine final
destinations.
The two other tanker tracking firms, asking
not to be named, told Reuters that they were
also seeing September increases in shipments,
but not to the same extent. One estimated an
increase of at least 100,000 bpd.
Refinitiv Eikon data showed Iranian exports
of crude and condensate at around 383,000 bpd
in August to destinations including China, Tur-
key and the United Arab Emirates.
China key to fortunes
China, known as the biggest buyer of Iranian
oil on the unhindered market before the US
adopted its “zero tolerance” policy, will very
likely be the key to Iran’s fortunes in oil sales in
the months ahead. Analysts see Beijing as using
its grey market decision-making on Iranian oil as

P10 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 39 30•September•2020