Page 12 - GLNG Week 40

GLNG COMMENTARY GLNG

of Energy of Vietnam is in the process of draft- as demand increasingly outstrips supply. Indeed,
ing a new master power development plan. It has Rystad has warned that in the shorter term, the
compiled a list of 22 potential LNG-to-power country may be forced to import more coal in
projects with a combined capacity of up to 108.5 order to meet the shortfall, thus undermin-
GW, the first of which is anticipated to enter ser- ing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
vice by 2023. emissions.
If all of these proposed projects go ahead, they
could nearly double Vietnam’s total installed What next?
generation capacity of 56 GW. NewsBase There is considerable interest in both develop-
reported in July that the Vietnamese govern- ing LNG import capacity in Vietnam and in
ment was targeting the construction of at least supplying the super-chilled fuel to the country
10 such projects during the coming decade. And as the LNG industry works to meet the growing
consultancy Rystad Energy said in late June that demand for gas. As of late August, at least eight Recent interest
four LNG terminals were already “in the project projects had preliminary supply agreements
pipeline” – the Thi Vai LNG, Son My LNG, Tien signed, with US companies in particular target- was attributed
Giang LNG and South West LNG facilities – ing Vietnamese customers. in part to efforts
which would have a combined capacity of 10mn Recent interest was attributed in part to
tpy by 2025. efforts to make it into Vietnam’s National Power to make it
The consultancy warned, however, that these Development Plan VIII, which the country’s
projects would be slow to address Vietnam’s energy ministry is due to submit to the prime into Vietnam’s
immediate gas shortages. Indeed, it anticipate minister for approval this month. And when the
that Vietnamese LNG import capacity will only finalised plan is published, it will likely provide National Power
reach 1mn tpy by 2023, when Phase 1 of the Thi more clarity on how the Vietnamese LNG indus- Development Plan
Vai terminal is due to enter service, saying that try can be expected to evolve over the coming
this would fill the demand-supply gap “only years. VIII.
marginally”. LNG is set to remain a medium-term option
Complicating this is the fact that the coro- for Vietnam, and possibly a long-term one,
navirus (COVID-19) could result in delays to depending on the pace of the energy transition
construction schedules. This is on top of the in the country, but it will not help with short-
fact that large-scale, multi-billion-dollar pro- term gas and power shortages. The development
jects such as new LNG terminals and associated of new regasification infrastructure will be rel-
power plants already run a risk of delays given atively slow. But the developers of the projects
their complexity. And in the short term, Vietnam involved will be keen to move as fast as possible
faces a crunch in both gas and power generation once facilities have been sanctioned.™

P12 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 40 09•October•2020