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20: Cash-flow forecasting and working capital






                 TOP TIP                         Dozens of Swissair aircraft stood grounded at Zurich Unique Airport. Flights
                 Cash is not the same as profit   could not take off due to the simple lack of cash fl ow. So little was available
                 so make sure you understand

                 the difference. A profitable firm   that there wasn’t enough money to pay for jet fuel.
                 can run out of cash. If it does,
                 and cannot pay its debts, then
                 even though it is profitable it
                 might still not be able to survive.   What is a cash-flow forecast?
                 In the short run, cash is more
                                               All business activity results in either a flow of cash into the business or a fl ow of

                 important than profit.

                                               cash out of the business. The survival of any business depends on the cash infl ows
                                               being greater than the cash outfl ows.

                                                     Positive Cash Flow                   Negative Cash Flow
                  EXPLORE!
                                                    Cash inflow                        Cash inflow
                 Investigate new businesses that
                 have set up in your area.                                                $
                   Why did they need cash in the       $$$
                 first few months of trading?
                   Prepare a diagram showing
                 the cash inflows and the cash
                 outflows of the business.


                                                                  Cash outflow                         Cash outflow
                                                                                                                           259
                                                                      $
                                                                                                          $$$



                                               Figure 20.1 Positive and negative cash flow




                                               It is better to have a positive cash flow as any temporary cash shortage
                                               may cause problems for the business and result in an increase in borrowing
                                               costs.

                                                  To prevent a negative net cash flow businesses need an accurate forecast

                 KEY TERMS                     of the size and timing of cash inflows and cash outfl ows. Th is cash-fl ow forecast
                                               enables businesses to identify any future time periods when cash shortages
                 Cash-flow forecast:  an estimate
                                               may occur.
                 of the future cash inflows and
                 outflows of a business.
                 Net cash flow:  cash inflow   Constructing a simple cash-flow forecast
                 minus cash outflow.
                                               Th e cash-flow forecast in Figure 20.2 shows the amount of cash infl ow


                                               and outflow each month. Th e difference between the monthly infl ow and

                                               outflow is called net cash flow. For example, in January the business expects to


                                               receive a $10,000 cash inflow, but in the same month expects a $7,000 cash


                                               outfl ow. This means that in January there will be a net cash fl ow of $3,000
                                               ($10,000 – $7,000).
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