Page 36 - ie2 August 2019

OVERSIGHT

Products with negative growth in June 2019 compared to June 2018

a) Slowdown in global trade demand has been a major withdrawal from US-GSP may have negative impact on that
reason behind poor performance by engineering exports this scope.
month. In their latest edition of Global Economic Prospects c) The decline in June 2019 has also been on the account of the
(June 2019), the World Bank clearly predicted that global high export base of June 2018 which has been a remarkable
trade growth in 2019 would only be 2.6 percent, slightly period for Indian exports.
lower than what was witnessed during the 2015-16 global d) Some heavy ticket exports products which have shown
slowdown and the weakest since the global financial crisis. drastic fall both monthly as well as on cumulative basis are:
The organisation further added that factors such as further i. Exports of primary steel under Chapter 72: fell by 11.12
escalation of trade tensions between major economies, percent in June 2019 and 12.29 percent in April-June 2019
sharper-than-expected slowdowns in major economies and ii. Exports of copper and copper products under Chapter 74: fell
renewed financial turmoil in several emerging markets would by 21.38 percent in June 2019 and 24.39 percent in April-June
continue to depress global demand and make recovery 2019
slower. Negative exports trend has been witnessed in a iii. Exports of aluminium and its products under Chapter 76: fell
number of economies including the US, Japan, and the EU. by 22.88 percent in June 2019 and 18.11 percent in April-June
China is also witnessing an overall sluggish trade due to the 2019
ongoing tariff war with the USA. China’s June 2019 exports iv. Exports of zinc and products: fell by 28.52 percent in June
fell by 1.3 percent when compared to June 2018. 2019 and 36.14 percent in April-June 2019
b) The withdrawal of India from US-GSP benefits is also v. Exports of lead and its products: fell by 40.33 percent in June
expected to show negative impact on India’s exports, given 2019 and 22.41 percent in April-June 2019
that the USA is a major export destination. Experts opine The cumulative impact of the fall in the five product lines is
that while India may have had opportunities of capturing $253.42 million for June 2019 and 714.94 million in April-June
key US markets on the sidelines of the US-China trade war, 2019.

Figure2: Slump in ferrous and non-ferrous metal exports, April 2019 v/s April 2018

1100

735.5
653.7 589.5
$ billion 600 585.2 542.8 418.6

69.2
68.3 54.4
48.9
100
JUNE 2018 JUNE 2019

Iron and Steel Products of Iron and Steel Copper and Products Alumunium and Products Zinc and Products
-400

36
36 l INDIAN ENGINEERING EXPORTS l AUGUST 2019 l INDIAN ENGINEERING EXPORTS l AUGUST 2019