Page 17 - The Economist Asia January 2018

Briefing America and North Korea The Economist January 27th 2018 17

Face off the joint chiefs of staff and a man who
wields his influence discreetly, last year
chided anyone who thinks it unimagin-
able that America might use force to check
a North Korean nuclear menace. “What’s
unimaginable to me is allowing a capabili-
ty that would allow a nuclear weapon to
WASHINGTON, DC land in Denver, Colorado,” he said. In Au-
Hope thatDonald Trump is bluffing overNorth Korea, butdo notcounton it
gust 2017 H.R. McMaster, a lieutenant-gen-
HE last time that America almost peared to be a hydrogen bomb, and pro- eral who is national security adviser to Mr
Trisked a pre-emptive strike on North duced enough plutonium and uranium for Trump, scolded an Obama-era predeces-
Korea the gamble offered a spectacular possibly dozens more warheads. Its mis- sor, Susan Rice, for suggesting that their
pay-off. Ashton Carter, a leading architect siles credibly threaten American territory country could contain and deter a nuclear-
of that plan, recalls that his scheme for in Guam, Hawaii or even the continental armed North Korea, as it did the Soviet Un-
bombing the Yongbyon nuclear facility in United States, even if officials do not be- ion. “She’s not right,” chided MrMcMaster,
1994 assumed that in one or two days the lieve a North Korean nuclear-tipped rocket asking how “classical deterrence theory”
entirety of the regime’s nuclear pro- can yet reach an American city. could apply to so brutal a regime.
gramme could be levelled and entombed Just because war in Korea would be un-
in rubble. Mr Carter, who went on to be- speakablydangerousdoesnotmean that it On manoeuvres
come defence secretary in the Obama ad- will not happen. Sober officials with long Even the defence secretary, James Mattis, a
ministration, nowthinksthatan American careers in Asia policy talk of being more cerebral former Marine general who says
first strike would only put “a significant fearful than at any time in recent memory. hisjob isto “buytime forourdiplomats” to
dent” in North Korea’s arsenal of nuclear America is governed by Donald Trump, solve the North Korean crisis, has weighed
devices and bombmaking sites. “The dif- who revels in matching North Korea in in. Put on the spot by reporters in Septem-
ference today is that the North Koreans are bluster. He hascalled MrKim “Little Rocket ber 2017, he insisted that there are military
very good at hiding, burying and moving Man” and a “sick puppy”, and promised options that would not imperil Seoul, the
around their nuclear infrastructure,” says that continued North Korean threats to South Korean capital, though its 10m in-
MrCarter, now at Harvard University. America “will be met with fire and fury habitants live within range of the North’s
If the potential upsides of a strike have like the world has never seen”. Mr Trump artillery and missiles. Such options exist,
shrunk, the risks have grown hugely. The has at times called diplomacy with the he said, “but I will not go into details.”
crisis of1994 saw Kim Il Sung thwart inter- Kim regime “a waste of time”. He is also Others sound less certain. Mr Carter
national inspections and threaten to put scornful of allies and alliances, causing notes—with tact—that retaliating against a
plutonium from Yongbyon into half a doz- one Japanese expert to identify a grave foreign attack is the standing policy of the
en primitive bombs. Since then power concern: “that Trump will come up with a North Korean armed forces. “If the US and
passed to the despot’sson and in 2011to his military option and not take the costs seri- South Korea decided to initiate a strike, we
grandson, Kim Jong Un, a young man in a ously.” It is not just MrTrump. The generals would have to make sure that we were
hurry who has to date never met a foreign seen as a steadying influence on the presi- thoroughly prepared for a full-on conflict,”
leader, even from China, the closest his all- dent have given warnings that the Kim re- he says. Invited to contemplate military
but-friendless kingdom has to an ally. gime cannot be permitted to build weap- optionsthatwould notputSeoul in harm’s
North Korea has tested six nuclear devices ons that threaten American territory. way Abraham Denmark, a Pentagon offi-
between 2006 and 2017, includingwhatap- General Joseph Dunford, chairman of cial during the Obama era who worked on 1