Page 18 - The Economist Asia January 2018

The Economist January 27th 2018
18 Briefing America and North Korea
2 Korea policy, answerssimply: “I can’timag- Oakley sunglasses). worst fear, namely North Korean nukes.
ine what those could be.” Team Trump has tried sweet reason. Put that way, the Korean dilemma argu-
Discussions of Korea strategy quickly Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, joined ably revolves around a single question: is
drift into seemingly impossible tangles, in- Mr Mattis in assuring China publicly that Mr Trump bluffing? Should North Korea,
volving deadly Stalinist court politics and as it pursues the denuclearisation of the China and the wider world believe that
fantastical perils. Official reports detail the Korean peninsula, America has no interest America will use force to prevent Mr Kim
North’s nuclear, biological and chemical in regime change or accelerated reunifica- from building a nuclear missile that can
arsenals, and artillery pieces in hardened tion, seeks no excuse to garrison troops strike Washington, DC, orLos Angeles?
bunkers just north of the demilitarised north of the DMZ and has no desire to Team Trump is at pains to explain why
zone (DMZ) that divides the two Koreas, harm the “long-suffering North Korean the boss is not bluffing, and why 2018 is, in
which some analysts estimate can fire people”, as distinct from theirrulers. the words ofone senior administration of-
10,000 rounds a minute at Seoul. A Penta- Revealing a once closely held secret, Mr ficial, “a verydangerousyear”. Thatofficial
gon report of 2015 talks of North Korean Tillerson told the AtlanticCouncil, a Wash- pointedly praises Israel for twice launch-
drones, midget-submarines and of com- ington think-tank, last December about ing air strikes against suspected nuclear
mandos who may attack targets in South “conversations” with China about how weapons sites, once in 1981against the Osi-
Korea “via suspected underground, cross- the two countries might secure loose nuc- rak reactor being built by Iraq, and in 2007
DMZ tunnels”. Mr Mattis has said a Korean lear weapons should North Korea fall into against a reactor in Syria allegedly under
conflict“would probablybe the worstkind chaos. This included assurances that construction with North Korean help.
offightingin most people’s lifetimes”. American forceswould retreatsouth of the
Still, responding to presidential de- DMZ when conditions allowed. Less Strike one, strike two…
mands for more and better options, offi- sweetly, the senior official at the State De- The official calls those strikes “textbook
cials are debating possible “preventive” partment says that when Mr Tillerson first cases” of preventive action. He draws at-
strikes, a term denotingactions taken earli- met his Chinese counterparts, Yang Jiechi tention to a Trump tweet in late December,
er than “pre-emptive” attacks in response and Wang Yi, in March 2017, he told them linking to a television interview that Mr
to an imminent threat, like a missile being that “we are out of time” and to drop their Trump gave as a private businessman in
readied forlaunch. long-standing view of North Korea as an 1999, urging America to “negotiate like cra-
asset that keeps America usefully tied up. zy” with North Korea but, if talks failed, to
Untangled logic Mr Tillerson told China that it can help “do something now” before warheads are
At root, however, debates about Korea America do more “the easy way or the aimed at New Yorkand othercities.
strategy turn on two starkly straightfor- hard way”, with the hard way meaning Strikingly, though, when asked point
ward questions, spelled out in interviews secondary sanctions on Chinese entities blank whether Mr Trump has already set
with serving and former defence and na- that trade with North Korea, and credible red lines that North Korea may not cross,
tional-security officials, diplomats and threats that MrTrump is “serious about the officials will only reply that as a general
spies, including several with personal ex- military option if we cannot resolve this rule, they are very careful about drawing
perience of negotiating with North Korea. diplomatically”. Addressingthat hierarchy red lines. Though news outlets have re-
First, will China ever breakdecisively with of horror, the aim is to convince Chinese ported debates about giving North Korea a
North Korea, its infuriating neighbour but leaders that the very thing they fear most— “bloody nose”, an official calls that phrase
valued buffer against the world? Second, instability next door, followed by an Asian “a fiction ofthe press”.
can Mr Kim be deterred? For if he cannot, nuclear-arms race—will be brought about Insiders deny that the Trump adminis-
then any responsible American president by continued toleration of America’s tration isdividinginto campsofhawks and 1
mustcontemplate a strike, riskingwhat the
Japanese expert summarises as “tens of
thousands of casualties today to prevent North Korea’s nuclear path
millions tomorrow”. Missile tests 6th nuclear
test
Aides to Mr Trump boast that the presi- Threatens to Says it will disable 3rd nuclear
dent’s resolve explains China’s support for leave Nuclear Withdraws from NPT nuclear facilities. Launches test Further UN
Unha-2
US agrees to
sanctions
Non-Proliferation
UN Security Council sanctions ofunprece- Treaty (NPT), Taepodong reactivation of unfreeze assets rocket in Yongbyon Fires two missiles
Restarts
Fires
Declares
then relents
defiance
and provide aid
dented severity, including curbs on North missile over nuclear facilities of UN nuclear reactor over Japan
security
Korean exports of coal and textiles and on First test of Japan Announces resolution 4th and 5th
Nodong 1 missile
flows of oil and refined petroleum from it has nuclear Carries out 1st Agrees to nuclear
UN inspectors say weapons underground Expels UN testing tests
China. A senior State Department official North Korea is nuclear test inspectors; moratorium
recalls Mr Trump’s order to strike Syria hiding evidence of Agrees to pulls out of in exchange Launches
nuclear fuel for freeze talks and for aid satellite on
with Tomahawk cruise missiles in April bombmaking testing restarts Unha-3
on long- nuclear Launches
2017, during dinner with the Chinese presi- Signs “agreed range facilities a satellite UN agrees on
dent, Xi Jinping, at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida framework” with missiles using new sanctions
US to freeze and Agrees to 2nd nuclear Unha-3
estate. That strike, enforcing a red line over dismantle return to test rocket
Expels UN
NPT. One
Syria’s use of chemical weapons, “put mil- nuclear inspectors from day later,
programme in
itaryaction backinto ourdiplomacy”, says exchange for Yongbyon demands Sinks
South
reactor
nuclear
nuclear reactors,
the official. “Itwasan importantdata point aid and easing of facility from US Korean
that China internalised.” sanctions warship
Cheonan
In fact China has yet to abandon a long-
standing hierarchy of Korean horror in
which a nuclear-armed North ranks sec-
ond. For China, it is pipped by the prospect 1993 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
of a chaotic fall of the Kim regime, fol- NK supreme Series of US-North Six-party talks with China, Sources: CSIS; The Economist
Russia, US, Japan and
leaders and
lowed by a reunification ofthe two Koreas US presidents Korean talks South Korea
on Western terms, lining China’s border Kim Il Kim Jong Il Kim Jong Un
Sung
with American allies and high-powered George W. Bush Donald
American radars (or worse, hulking GIsin Bill Clinton Barack Obama Trump