Page 19 - The Economist Asia January 2018

The Economist January 27th 2018
Briefing America and North Korea 19
2 doves, with each taking a different view of to reason, notes Joseph DeTrani, a former the official. Meanwhile, China continues
the utilityoftalks. Aclearerdivide turnson intelligence officer and commentator for to argue forAmerica to freeze military exer-
relative optimism or pessimism about Mr “The Cipher Brief”, a national-security cises and curb deployments of advanced
Kim’s intentions, with Mr McMaster a website, who is also a semi-official envoy weapons in Asia. China is always “willing
leading voice of doom (he has compared entrusted with meeting senior North Kore- to bargain away the American military
this moment of geopolitical peril to 1914). an diplomats. footprint”, growls a second official.
In particular, pessimists doubt North Ko- If trust vanishes, North Koreans “may A final camp combines scepticism
rea’s claim that it wants nuclear weapons see an imminent threat coming to them about North Korea’s motives—dismissing
that can hit America forself-defence. that is not an imminent threat”, disbeliev- Mr Kim’s claims to need nuclear weapons
ingassurances that a strike is limited. In his as a deterrent—with (relative) optimism
Undeterred? experience, the country’s diplomats are about sanctions. A Western diplomat says
Logic, and Mr Kim’s own words, point to a professional and informed about the that North Korea believes that, if it can be-
nuclear programme with grander ambi- world. But that only helps if their advice come the onlynation with a long-range nu-
tions, perhaps to “drive the US from the reaches core leaders, who also hear from clear capability other than America, Brit-
peninsula” or reunify Korea under the “hardliners in North Korea [whom] we do ain, China, France and Russia, it will be
North’s flag, argues the senior administra- not know,” cautions Mr DeTrani. He dis- welcomed to an “elite club”, free of all
tion official. “Whyshould a regime starve a agrees with colleagues (and there are sanctions, “which is pie in the sky”.
couple of million of its own people to many) who call Mr Trump’s tweets un- This camp would use North Korea’s
death, expose itselfto punishingsanctions, helpful. On balance it is positive for North ambitions against it. Daniel Russel, former
[and] allow itself to be isolated by all its Koreansto heardirectlyfrom the president, assistant secretary of state for East Asian
friends, merelyto gain a deterrentthat they and Pacific affairs during the Obama era,
already had for 60 years, from artillery shares the pessimists’ beliefthat North Ko-
pieces pointed at Seoul?” rea does not need nuclear weapons for de-
Several officials and ex-officials who terrence, securing its safety with its ability
see the value of frightening Mr Kim to the to bombard Seoul. Nor does it need mis-
negotiating table hope privately that Mr siles—it can already detonate a nuclear de-
Trump is bluffing, believing that a limited vice smuggled into South Korea, even if
strike would risk massive retaliation. Even that would be suicidal.
narrowly-focused operations North of the MrRussel arguesthatthe North’sgoal is
border are deemed risky. In late 2016 Mr money and other concessions. If through
Obama’s National Security Council organ- sustained sanctions “North Korea is de-
ised a war game, asking military, dip- nied the pay-off, the ransom it is seeking, it
lomatic and intelligence officials to simu- hasn’t actually achieved the [right] return
late a mission to secure nuclear weapons on investment on the nuclear pro-
in a North Korea tumblinginto instability. gramme,” says Mr Russel, now at the Asia
Participants call the exercise deeply so- Society. Asense ofbeingsqueezed without
bering, with so many American troops reward is spreading discontent among the
needed to secure the large number of nuc- elites, he says. “The ability to limit Kim’s
lear sites that it could take months to build ability to govern, via sanctions, is the best
them up, losing any element of surprise, leverage we have.”
and raising seemingly insuperable ques- Ironically, given all the focus in Wash-
tions about when to evacuate Americans he says. They understand bombast. ington on Mr Trump’s impulsive ways, in-
from the region without triggering chaos. Optimists note that America has real siders worry most about a crisis that is
An unclassified letter sent by the Pentagon points of leverage, even without force. Mr thrust upon him. They fear that China and
to Congress in November 2017 offered the Carter urges step-by-step “coercive diplo- North Korea are both waiting Mr Trump
assessment that only a ground invasion macy”, setting out specific sticks and car- out, hoping that he loses the White House
could find and secure all weapons sites. rotsfordiscrete North Korean actions, from orbecome distracted by othercrises.
A senior American official recalls being missile tests to underground nuclear tests.
asked byforeign counterpartswhyMrKim IfChina proves incapable ofplayinga pos- Mutual incomprehension
could not simply be killed. In reply he itive role, he recommends it is “sidelined”. Mr Denmark speaks for several officials
would point to the outside world’s danger- Several officials say that China’s will- when expressing dread about Mr Kim mis-
ous lack of knowledge about what orders ingness to toughen sanctions is mostly judging some fresh provocation. In 2010
the leader’s death might trigger: “We seri- about managingAmerica, which is seen as the North sank the Cheonan, a South Kore-
ously don’t know that there isn’t some sort one of two irresponsible powers, along- an patrol ship, killing 46 sailors. He fears
of automatic doomsday process that pulls side North Korea, distracting Chinese lead- Mr Kim trying a similar act today, thinking
down the pillars of the temple.” The same ers from their domestic priorities. “The that America will not respond. The North
official asked military colleagues for Chinese are more upset with the North Ko- might overreact to American demonstra-
“horse’s head on the pillow” options that reans forwakingthe American giant,” says tions of will, such as bomber flights off the
would terrify Mr Kim without triggering a an American official. coast, says Mr Denmark. “What’s to stop
full-scale response. “Nobody I spoke to in China is now enforcing UN trade em- the North Koreans thinking that’s the be-
the military had an idea that could reliably bargoes on North Korea more strictly, in ginning of an attack? That keeps me up.
thread the needle,” he says. partto ward offAmerican sanctionstarget- Who has launch authority on the North
Scenarios for limited strikes could in- ing specific Chinese banks and oil traders, Korean side in the middle ofthe night?”
clude the shooting down of a North Kore- though diplomats still deplore Chinese On the other side stands Mr Trump, a
an ballistic missile test. But a failure would “salami-slicing” of each new sanctions wild card who may soon face risks he
damage the credibility of American de- plan. By a process of elimination, China deems intolerable while lacking any good
fences. There is also a dangerous paradox now backs “pressure that will placate the options. “The president may be forced to
attached to any action launched on the Americans without being strong enough take action,” a US official says. “The poten-
grounds that North Korea is deemed deaf to [make the Kim regime] collapse,” says tial forconflict is very high.” 7