Page 60 - The Economist Asia January 2018

44 Europe
KHARKIV Finland’s president The Economist January 27th 2018
LUHANSK
Mr Congeniality
UKRAINE
Line of
Contact Luhansk
DNIPROPETROVSK
Donetsk D O N B A S Sauli Niinisto loves dogs, hates wild parsnips and won’tdo anything rash
Olenivka N EUROPE’S frozen north, two presi- known as the True Finns) has failed to
DONE T SK R USSIA
Idents are standingforre-election: Rus- capitalise on herparty’s base.
ZAPORIZHIA sia’s VladimirPutin and Finland’s some- But luckalso has somethingto do
what lesser-known Sauli Niinisto. Both with it. Finland recently emerged from a
100 km
are likely to win with huge majorities. recession, and is still ridinghigh afterthe
Kiev Some 70% ofFinns backMrNiinisto, country’s centennial celebrations—which
Sea of
UKRAINE polls say—a Putinesque level ofsupport. MrNiinisto largely oversaw—in late 2017.
Azo v
MrNiinisto looks likely to glide to victory Finland also shares a 1,300km (800-mile)
CRIMEA
in the first round ofvotingon January borderwith Russia. Finns do not want a
28th. In a world where outsiders and maverickwreckingthe carefully bal-
Ukraine populists are on the march, how does he anced relationship with theirscary
Calling a bully a do it? Unlike MrPutin, he has none ofthe neighbour. On the world stage, MrNii-
nisto has portrayed himselfas a mes-
advantages ofbeingan autocrat; Finland
bully is one ofthe world’s freest democracies. sengerbetween superpowers. Last year
True, the Finnish presidency is mainly
alone he met Donald Trump, Xi Jinping
a symbolic role, focused on glad-handing and MrPutin. MrNiinisto says that, as
foreigners and with little powerover president, the most important thing is to
MOSCOW internal politics. Yet MrNiinisto has a act in a way that won’t “blow the world
Legislators bicker, diplomats gab and reputation forcompetence at both. As the to pieces”. He is surely right there.
conflictrolls on in eastern Ukraine
Speakerofparliament, he won applause
FTERnearlyfouryearsofwarin eastern by encouragingMPs to travel second-
AUkraine, and more than 10,000 class and bookcheaperhotels. When he
deaths, reports from international moni- was finance ministerin the late 1990s he
tors in the region sound like a grim broken slashed publicdebt from 60% to just over
record. On January 19th: 340 explosions. 40% ofGDP, ticklingthe Finnish love of
On January20th: 240 explosions. On Janu- frugality. He also oversaw the transition
ary 21st: 195 explosions and two middle- to the euro.
aged civilians hit by rifle fire while travel- MrNiinisto is, besides, a skilled retail
lingin a bus neara separatist checkpoint in politician. He shares details ofhis private
the town ofOlenivka. “One had blood cov- life in tabloids: his much youngerwife, a
ering the left side of his face and was hold- poet, is expectinga baby; his dogrecently
ing gauze to it and the other had gunshot became an internet staraftertrying to
wounds in his neck and left cheek,” the steal the presidential Christmas ham. Mr
monitors from the Organisation forSecuri- Niinisto once called a radio nature show,
ty and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) re- identifyinghimselfonly as “Sauli from
ported this week. One of the men ended Naantali”, to askabout invasive wild
up in hospital; the other died at the site of parsnips. He roller-blades, too. His closest
the attack. competitor, Pekka Haavisto ofthe Green
The Minsk agreements, a peace plan Alliance, has struggled to climb above
signed in early 2015, are meant to prevent 10% in the polls. Laura Huhtasaari of the
such incidents. Yet an end to the conflict in populist-nationalist Finns Party (formerly
the Donbas region remains a distant
dream. Russia bears the brunt ofthe blame
for failing to rein in its separatist allies in heels of a contentious new Ukrainian bill measure to have little effect on the ground.
the area and secure a ceasefire. ButUkraine aimed at redefining national policy to- Instead, it looks more like domestic politi-
in turn has balked at taking some political wards the Donbas. President Petro Porosh- cal posturingbyMrPoroshenko, who faces
steps outlined in the deal, saying they are enko, who pushed the bill, says it will a tough re-election fight in 2019.
impossible until security improves; many “pave the wayforreintegration ofthe occu- Unsurprisingly, Russia reacted with in-
in Kiev see the accords as a raw deal. West- pied Ukrainian lands”. The legislation de- dignation. “You cannot call this anything
ern negotiatorshope thatkeepingdialogue clares Russia an “aggressor”, and calls the but preparation for a new war,” declared
with Russia open may yet bear fruit. A qui- separatist-controlled parts of Donetsk and Russia’s foreign ministry, warning that the
et day on the front on January 23rd shows Luhansk “temporarily occupied territo- bill risked “a dangerous escalation in Uk-
“peace is possible with political will,” says ries”, like Crimea—thus making it crystal- raine with unpredictable consequences
America’s special representative to the clear that Ukraine blames Russia, not local forworld peace and security”. Russian offi-
conflict, Kurt Volker. On January 26th Mr elements, for the secession. It also shakes cials say the bill undermines the peace
Volker will meet his Russian counterpart, up the local command and expands presi- plan. “Kiev has gone from sabotaging the
Vladislav Surkov, in Dubai forthe first time dential authority to conduct operations Minsk agreements to burying them,” said
since the American government approved there withoutimposingmartial law. Critics Konstantin Kosachyov, chairman of the
plans last year to provide lethal defensive of Mr Poroshenko argue that the bill gives foreign-affairs committee in the Russian
weapons to Ukraine, a move that then- him unnecessarily far-reaching powers, parliament’supperhouse. Mostwould say
President BarackObama had longresisted. and protestors clashed outside parliament the Minsk agreements have long been on
The meeting will also come on the ahead of its passage. Analysts expect the life support, ifthey are not dead already. 7