Page 55 - The Economist Asia January 2018

SPECIAL REPORT
THE FUTURE OF WAR

Bycontrast, low-cost, expendable distributed platforms can
be built in large numbers and controlled by relatively few hu-
mans. Swarms can make life very difficult for adversaries. They
will come in manyshapesand sizes, each designed to carry outa
particular mission, such as reconnaissance over a wide area, de-
fending ships or troops on the ground and so on. They will be
able to work out the best way to accomplish their mission as it
unfolds, and might also be networked together into a single
“swarmanoid”. Tiny 3D-printed drones, costing perhaps as little
as a dollar each, says Mr Scharre, could be formed into “smart
clouds” that might permeate a building or be air-dropped over a
wide area to lookforhidden enemy forces.
It is certain that autonomous weapons systems will appear
on the battlefield in the years ahead. What is less clear is whether
America will be the first to deploy them. In July 2017 China pro-
duced its “Next-Generation Artificial-Intelligence Development
Plan”, which designates AI as the transformative technology un-
derpinningfuture economicand militarypower. Itaimsfor China
to become the pre-eminent force in AI by 2030, using a strategy of
“military-civil fusion” that America would find hard to replicate.
And in September Vladimir Putin told Russian children returning
to school that “artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Rus-
sia but for all of mankind…whoever becomes the leader in this
sphere will become the ruler of the world.” Elon Musk, of Tesla
and SpaceXfame, responded by tweetingthat “competition forAI
2 Increasingly autonomous drones will be able to perform a superiority at national level [is the] most likely cause ofWW3.”
range oftasksthatwill soon make them indispensable. UAVswill Peter Singer is less apocalyptic than MrMusk, but he agrees
carry out the whole range of reconnaissance or strike missions, that the competition for AI dominance is fuelling an arms race
and stealth variants will become the tip ofthe spear for penetrat- that will itself generate insecurity. This arms race may be espe-
ing sophisticated air defences. Some will be designed to loiter at cially destabilising because the capabilities of robotic weapons
altitude while waiting for a target to emerge. Israel already de- systems will not become clear until someone is tempted to use
ploys the Harop, an autonomous anti-radiation drone which can them. The big question is whether this competition can be con-
fly for up to six hours, attacking only when an enemy air-defence tained, and whetherrules to ensure human control overautono-
radar lights up. Autonomous high-altitude UAVs will be used as mous systems are possible—let alone enforceable. 7
back-up data links in case satellites are destroyed, or as platforms
foranti-missile solid-state lasers. LargerUAVswill be deployed as
tankers and transport aircraft that can operate close to the action. Autonomous weapons
Underwater warfare will become ever more important in
the future because the sea offers a degree of sanctuary from Man and machine
which power can be projected within A2/AD zones. Unmanned
undersea vehicles (UUVs) will be able to carry out a wide range
of difficult and dangerous missions, such as mine clearance or
mine-laying near an adversary’s coast; distributing and collect-
ing data from undersea anti-submarine sensor networks in con- AI-empowered robots pose entirely new dangers,
tested waters; patrolling with active sonar; resupplying missiles
to manned submarines; and even becoming missile platforms possibly of an existential kind
themselves, at a small fraction ofthe cost ofnuclear-powered at- MANYOFTHE trendsin warfare thatthisspecial report has
tack submarines. There are still technical difficulties to be over- identified, although worrying, are at least within human
come, but progress is accelerating. experience. Great-power competition may be making a come-
Potentially the biggest change to the way wars are fought back. The attempt of revisionist powers to achieve their ends by
will come from deploying lots of robots simultaneously. Paul using hybrid warfare in the grey zone is taking new forms. But
Scharre, an autonomous-weapons expert at CNAS who has pio- there is nothing new about big countries bending smaller neigh-
neered the concept of “swarming”, argues that “collectively, bours to their will without invading them. The prospect of na-
swarms ofrobotic systems have the potential for even more dra- scent technologies contributing to instability between nuclear-
matic, disruptive change to military operations.” Swarms can armed adversaries is not reassuring, but past arms-control agree-
bringgreatermass, co-ordination, intelligence and speed. ments suggest possible ways ofreducingthe riskofescalation.
The fast-approaching revolution in military robotics is in a
The many, not the few different league. It poses daunting ethical, legal, policy and prac-
As Mr Scharre points out, swarming will solve a big pro- tical problems, potentially creating dangers of an entirely new
blem forAmerica. The countrycurrentlydependson an ever-de- and, some think, existential kind. Concern has been growing for
creasing number of extremely capable but eye-wateringly ex- some time. Discussions about lethal autonomous weapons
pensive multi-mission platforms which, if lost at the outset of a (LAWs) have been held at the UN’s Convention on Certain Con-
conflict, would be impossible to replace. Asingle F-35 aircraftcan ventional Weapons (CCW), which prohibits or restricts some
cost well over $100m, an attack submarine $2.7bn and a Ford- weapons deemed to cause unjustifiable suffering. A meeting of
class carrierwith all its aircraft approaching$20bn. the CCW in November brought together a group of government 1

The Economist January 27th 2018 15