Page 57 - The Economist Asia January 2018

Europe The Economist January 27th 2018 41
Also in this section
43 Italy’s eurosceptics
44 Ukraine and Russia
44 Finland’s popular president
46 Charlemagne: Torn over Tehran

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Europe’s welfare states popularitis, theyembrace it. Jacek Rostow-
Battle of the benefits ski, who served as finance minister under
Civic Platform, says that it is affordable: it
costs about 1.3% of GDP, while the World
BankexpectsPoland’seconomyto growby
4% this year. Civic Platform now cam-
paigns on a promise to expand 500Plus to
STOCKHOLM AND WARSAW coverall first-born children too.
Populists are winning votes byoffering more generous welfare. Howcan Poland’sprime minister, MateuszMora-
mainstream parties respond?
wiecki, boasts that PiS has defied conven-
T IS not cold inside the Municipal Family from 11.9% to 2.8%. tional wisdom, favouringthe “regularguy”
ISupport Centre, but Barbara Choinska 500Plus is popular, especially in places over the “elite”. In fact, child stipends are
keeps her coat on, in the manner ofpeople like Siedlce. Many in Poland’s small towns common in rich European countries such
to whom the world has been hostile. The and villages felt that the previous govern- as Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands,
centre is the main social-services point in ment, led by the liberal Civic Platform France and Britain. Poland’s500Plusisgen-
Siedlce, a town 90km east of Warsaw. Ms party, looked down on them. Overthe past erous relative to average earnings, but the
Choinska has five children, no husband two decades, the economy grew rapidly country’s overall spending on social pro-
and no job. “She struggles to make sure the but inequality also rose, with poverty tection is still only about 20% of GDP, well
children are dressed and do their home- more common in rural areas. This is partly below the EU average ofabout 28%.
work,” explains Adam Kowalczyk, the cen- why provincial Poles voted for PiS. The Historically, welfare-state programmes
tre’s director. “We send someone each 500Plusprogramme fitsPiS’sCatholic, pro- have been introduced by the centre-left
weekto help hermaintain basic standards, familyideology. PiS’svotersare more likely (such as Labourparties in the Nordic coun-
so they don’t get taken away by the state.” than liberal ones to have two or more chil- tries and Britain) or the centre-right (the
One thing Ms Choinska no longer wor- dren—and a fixed stipend buys more in ru- Gaullists in France, the Christian Demo-
ries about is having money for food and ral areas than in pricey Warsaw. crats in Germany and Italy). Often they
rent. In 2016 Poland’snewgovernment, led Atfirst, liberal politicianscalled the pro- were introduced precisely in order to keep
by the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, gramme a budget-buster. Now, seeing how extremists from winning power. Yet in Po- 1
launched the “Family 500Plus” pro-
gramme, which pays a monthly stipend of
500 zlotys($148) perchild, startingwith the Mostly growing 1
second. Indigent parents like Ms Choinska Government social spending, as % of GDP
qualify fortheirfirst child, too, so she gets a
whopping 2,500 zlotys per month. In Po- Sweden 35
land, that is not far short of the median France
after-tax household income—and benefi- 30
ciaries have no obligation to work.
The programme has transformed the Germany 25
Polish welfare state. Mr Kowalczyk’s cen-
tre, which distributes the stipends, has Italy 20
seen its annual budget grow from about Britain Poland
35m to 94m zlotys. The World Bank esti- 15
mates the programme has cut the rate of 1980 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 16
extreme child poverty(defined asless than Source: OECD
1,500 zlotys per month for a family of four)