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A MORTALITY STUDY: SURVIVAL ANALYSIS
ON THE LIFESPAN OF INDUSTRIAL
BUILDINGS IN HONG KONG
Poster
CHEUNG Wai Nam Athena
BSc (Hons) in Surveying
Department of Design and Architecture
OBJECTIVES RESEARCH BACKGROUND
This research aims to study the The scarcity of land resources has been a prolonged issue in Hong Kong,
mortality and survival pattern of leading to a shifting social perception that favors high-rise expansion and
industrial buildings (IBs) in Hong ‘building bigger’.
Kong using survival analysis. It is recognised that there is insufficient knowledge of building stock in Hong
• To determine the building lifespan Kong. There is no definite answer to the question: “How long does a building
and survival rate of IBs last?” Therefore, the actual remaining lifespan of the building remains unknown.
• To develop the survival curve of IBs Loopholes identified in previous research highlight the need for a more reliable
• To identify the mortality rate and basis for predicting building lifespan. The present research employs industrial
survival patterns of IBs buildings to explore a more accurate predictive framework.
• To explore the mortality factors
affecting the survival patterns of METHODOLOGY
IBs
• To interpret the identified A 50-year period observation, from 1975 and 2024, has been completed. This
mortality and survival patterns research study comprises two parts: Data Collection and Analytical Research.
using existing research findings Data collection utilizes a qualitative research approach to conduct a descriptive
statistical examination of IBs. Occupation permits and demolition consents
have been collected as the data-driven evidence to facilitate the identification of
building lifespan and building stock.
Nonparametric models, specifically the Kaplan-Meier Estimator (KME) and
ABOUT THE INVESTIGATOR life table methods, are employed to generate the survival curves and tables in
determining the survival probability and mortality rate of IB cohorts.
I am a dedicated and inquisitive For this analytical research, the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences
final-year surveying student. I enjoy (SPSS) is applied as the statistical software.
teamwork and always strive for the
best. My four-year degree at THEi FINDINGS
has sparked my interest in building • A declining trend in IB construction was observed over the study period
surveying. I am ready to devote • Most IB blocks were demolished between 1975 and 1999
myself to the industry and am looking • A significant proportion of the demolished IB blocks were under 20 years
forward to pursuing my professional of age
career in this field.
FYP Supervisor: Sr Dr LAU Wai Kin The findings aligned with previous research indicating no direct connection
Elvis between a building’s age and its demolition rate; the effective lifetime of buildings
is independent of its chronological age. Diverging from previous research
studies, this study found that many industrial buildings were demolished at an
early age. However, this finding does not imply that younger buildings have a
higher demolition rate than the older ones among the IB blocks.
This research helps fill a recognized gap by demonstrating the feasibility of
using building stock data to conduct survival analysis on buildings.
27 Student Applied Research Presentations 2025 Student Applied Research Presentations 2025
