Page 32 - aruba-today-20171028

A32 FEATURE
Saturday 28 OctOber 2017

Science Says: Jack Frost nipping at your nose ever later

By SETH BORENSTEIN spent on heat. But it also
AP Science Writer hurts some plants that re-
WASHINGTON (AP) — Win- quire a certain amount
ter is coming ... later. And of chill, such as Georgia
it’s leaving ever earlier. peaches, said Theresa
Across the United States, Crimmins, a University of Ari-
the year’s first freeze has zona ecologist. Crimmins is
been arriving further and assistant director of the Na-
further into the calendar, tional Phenology Network
according to more than a . Phenology is the study of
century of measurements the seasons and how plants
from weather stations na- and animals adapt to tim-
tionwide. ing changes. Pests that at-
Scientists say it is yet anoth- tack trees and spread dis-
er sign of the changing cli- ease aren’t being killed off
mate, and that it has good as early as they normally
and bad consequences for would be, Crimmins said.
the nation. There could be In New England, many trees
more fruits and vegetables aren’t changing colors as
— and also more allergies vibrantly as they normally
and pests. This Monday, Oct. 23, 2017 file photo show fall colors beginning to show along Route 209 in Reilly do or used to because
“I’m happy about it,” said Township, Schuylkill County, Pa. some take cues for when to
Karen Duncan of Streator, Associated Press turn from temperature, said
Illinois. Her flowers are in the trend became notice- lations was Oct. 19. Since 61 days — two months — Boston University biology
bloom because she’s had able. 2010, the average first shorter than normal. professor Richard Primack.
no frost this year yet, just as This year, about 40 percent freeze is on Oct. 26. Last Global warming has helped Clusters of late-emerging
she had none last year at of the Lower 48 states have year, the first freeze in Ot- push the first frosts later, Kun- monarch butterflies are be-
this time either. On the oth- had a freeze as of Oct. 23, tawa came on Nov. 12. kel and other scientists said. ing found far further north
er hand, she said just last compared to 65 percent in Last year was “way off the Also at play, though, are than normal for this time
week it was too hot and a normal year, according charts” nationwide, Kun- natural short-term changes of year, and are unlikely to
buggy to go out — in late to Jeff Masters, meteorol- kel said. The average first in air circulation patterns survive their migration to
October, near Chicago. ogy director of the private freeze was two weeks later — but they too may be in- Mexico.
The trend of ever later first service Weather Under- than the 20th century av- fluenced by man-made cli- Kevin Trenberth, a climate
freezes appears to have ground. erage, and the last frost of mate change, they said. scientist at the National
started around 1980, ac- Duncan’s flowers should be spring was nine days earlier This shrinking freeze season Center for Atmospheric
cording to an analysis by dead by now. According than normal. is what climate scientists Research, said natural vari-
The Associated Press of to data from the weather Overall the United States have long predicted, said ability, especially an El Nino,
data from 700 weather sta- station near her in Ottawa, freeze season of 2016 was University of Oklahoma me- made last year exceptional
tions across the U.S. going Illinois, the average first more than a month shorter teorology professor Jason for an early freeze, but “it
back to 1895 compiled by freeze for the 20th century than the freeze season of Furtado. represents the kind of con-
Ken Kunkel, a meteorolo- was Oct. 15. The normal 1916. It was most extreme A shorter freeze season ditions that will be more
gist at the National Ocean- from 1981 to 2010 based in the Pacific Northwest. Or- means a longer growing routine in a decade or two”
ic and Atmospheric Admin- on NOAA computer simu- egon’s freeze season was season and less money because of man-made cli-
istration’s National Centers mate change. “The long-
for Environmental Informa- term consequences are
tion. really negative,” said Pri-
To look for nationwide mack, because shorter
trends, Kunkel compared winters and hotter temper-
the first freeze from each of atures are also expected
the 700 stations to the sta- to lead to rising seas that
tion’s average for the 20th cause worse flooding dur-
Century. Some parts of the ing heavy storms.
country experience earlier In suburban Boston, Pri-
or later freezes every year, mack and his wife are still
but on average freezes are eating lettuce, tomatoes
coming later.The average and green beans from their
first freeze over the last 10 garden. And they are get-
years, from 2007 to 2016, is ting fresh figs off their back-
a week later than the av- This Tuesday, Oct. 24, 2017 photo provided by Margaret Primack shows her husband, Richard, in yard tree almost daily.
erage from 1971 to 1980, their home garden in Boston, still growing and productive. “These fig trees should be
which is before Kunkel said Associated Press asleep,” Primack said.q