Page 13 - TWIMS Posters 2023

EXPLORING THE APPLICATION Background Source: Author adapted from Geels & Schot (2007)
Figure 1: Developed Transition Model

Landscape
As the world embarks on measures to mitigate climate The transition to a low carbon economy where renewable Level Light pressure from Shock pressure from
OF THE MULTI-LEVEL transition from fossil fuel-based electricity to low carbon require significant changes in the current status quo, from climate change security of supply
change, one of the most effective mitigation actions is the
energy will be the dominant source of energy supply will

social habits to structural systems (Geels, 2018). Schot and
energy sources like Solar PV which is the focus of this study.
However, there is a great need to ensure that this transition is
second deep transition through using the Multilevel
Level
just and equitable. The purpose of this study was to Kanger (2018) sought to understand and synthesise the Regime
understand what shape the South African energy transition
Perspective (MLP) framework. The MLP examines the
PERSPECTIVE THEORY TO was taking and what the solar PV industry could do to ensure transition of socio-technical systems; these are systems that Solar PV price & Transition issues weaken Solar PV starts Energy A new energy
provide society with functions such as transport and
that the transition for the businesses operating in it, is just,
electricity (Geels, 2018). According to Geels (2007), the
and that it does not create a concentrated industry like the
architecture
storage/enablers
replacing fossil
adoption.
operational
forms
current fossil fuel industry.
competitive
coal as significant party of
drive adoption
energy mix
levels developing: firstly the regime that gains power in the
The world is currently in the phase of the second Deep system progresses over a long period of time with three Niche competitiveness Regime response maintains fuel electricity become price
PROMOTE A JUST TRANSITION sustained fundamental transformations of a wide range of players that disrupt the regime; and thirdly landscape Time
social-technical system; secondly the niche innovations or
Level
Transition formally defined as “a series of connected and
developments that are outside of the regime’s control, such
socio-technical systems in a similar direction" (Schot &
Kanger, 2018). The first Deep Transition was characterised by
According to the Multilevel Perspective framework, when
the reliance on fossil fuels and this period saw the rise of a few as climate change or wars. These themes were further analysed and related to the seeks to block threats from entering their space and
transition pathways framework proposed by Geels &
also how they create path dependencies to lock in
there are events in the landscape, it gives an opportunity
major fossil fuel companies that have dominated the energy
IN THE SOUTH AFRICAN industry, which are known as the current incumbents (Geels for niche technologies to transition into the regime. Scott (2007). From the integration of these themes with current users (Geels & Schot, 2007). The study showed
that there were few, if not any barriers to entry for new
Geels and Scott’s (2007) model, a revised model was
et al., 2016). The rise of these incumbents resulted in the
Climate change is one of the events that is facilitating the
players, however, smaller solar PV companies
constructed as depicted in Figure 1 above.
creation of wealth for a very small minority while a significant
transition of niche technologies such as renewable energy
majority experienced systematic unemployment and
grow. Some of these emanated from a lack of access to
Baker (2015) also argues that the rolling blackouts due to
growing inequality (Schot & Kanger, 2018). Furthermore, technologies to the regime (Bagherian & Lettice, 2016). Landscape level conditions were found in the data in experienced significant challenges when trying to
response to the first research question relating to
SOLAR PV INDUSTRY developing niche technologies such as renewables through renewable energy technology to enter the regime. MLP is climate change to a small extent and the energy their weak balance sheets, whereas bigger solar PV
shortage of supply creates an opportunity for niche
these fossil fuel incumbents established barriers to entry for
funding for financing their envisaged projects due to
security challenge to a large extent. The regime level
instruments such as subsidies for fossil fuels (Schmidt et al.,
therefore useful in understanding how renewable energy
players continued to grow bigger, and this situation
and transition issues discussed in the second and
2017). These subsidies enable the cost of energy from fossil
the niche space into the regime, where they can displace
fuels to appear lower than the cost of energy from renewable technologies such as solar PV are able to transition from fourth research questions highlighted elements that reflects the transition in Germany which led to a
energy sources such as solar PV. This is one of the reasons that the current incumbents (Geels et al., 2018). slow down or weaken the transition. The third research concentrated market (Brock et al., 2021).
has led to developing countries such as South Africa not Studies have also demonstrated how the transition in question presented technologies and actors that The lack of participation of black-owned businesses in
rapidly addressing the challenge of climate change which is developed economies such as Germany has led to the could be enablers for the niche level entering the the sector was also found to be an area of development
caused by fossil fuels (Schmidt et al., 2017). creation of a concentrated market that mirrors the fossil fuel regime. All of these factors combine to form a new in order to ensure broader participation and greater
The solar PV market in South Africa is made up of two market industry structure. Small businesses in the renewable energy energy architecture. opportunities for job creation. Smaller companies that
segments. The first segment is the utility generation market sector, specifically in the solar PV industry, played very little or are seeking to grow in the sector should explore
which is dominated by the Renewable Energy Independent no role in the transition in established economies even they The model can be used to analyse transitions where the opportunities of collaborating with one another so as
adoption of a niche innovation is largely due to a
Power Producer (REIPPP) Program and the second segment
are the biggest creator of employment (Geels et al., 2016). The
AUTHOR: refers to the embedded generation market which includes large-scale renewable energy sector in South Africa has temporal sporadic situation such as load shedding, to combine their balance sheets and have a better
chance of receiving finance from funders. This will
already started to indicate signs of creating a concentrated
combined with a weaker and constant pressure such as
the residential, commercial, and industrial segments (SAPVIA,
2021). As South Africa transitions to renewables and more market which is dominated by international players. These climate change. The new architecture that emerges is ensure that smaller players do not disintegrate, leaving
specifically, in the case of this study, the solar PV market, there concerning developments together with the just transition largely dependent on the strength of the incumbents in only big companies in the sector.
is a significant need to ensure that the transition does not issues such as jobs, the role of policy, and the competing the regime, the ability of the niche to solve emerging The study also showed that in the residential sector,
Mpumzi Swana create new incumbents in the energy sector who will needs of a developing state has revealed a gap in the issues, the competitiveness of the niche, and the solar PV systems were still too expensive for most
literature surrounding energy transitions in developing
dominate and control the future energy system of the country
as the fossil fuel incumbents did, but rather create a sector that countries, the likely pathway that the transition will take, and development of enablers of the niche innovation such homeowners, leaving only the affluent able to install the
is equitable and just (Routledge, Cumbers, & Derickson, 2018). what niche developments can ensure a just transition. as financial models. system. This poses a significant challenge to the growth
of that segment and its ability to create a just society.
Objective Taking into consideration these various conditions, it Based on the interview findings, SAPVIA together with
was concluded that the South African energy transition
SUPERVISOR: to solar PV will take on the Reconfiguration Pathway other building industry bodies such as the South African
Property Owners Association, could work with the
where, as solar PV actors continue to solve the
The purpose of this study is to understand what transition 1. What pathways have solar PV energy transition taken in problems and shortcomings of the technology and as banking sector towards models that look at how
pathway the growing solar PV market in South Africa is South Africa? enablers such as battery storage become price owning a solar system can reduce the homeowner’s
taking, and to understand how the transition to this 2. What are the key Just transition issues facing the solar PV competitive, the incumbent, ESKOM, will progressively bond, as it will have benefits towards climate change
Liesel Kassier technology can be Just and equitable for the businesses 3. What are the niche innovations and who are the actors adopt the niche, and it will slowly take over the regime mitigation. Improved relations are also needed between
industry in South Africa?
operating in it.
the political leadership of the country and the solar PV
The study will seek to answer the overall research question present in the South African solar PV industry? over a long period of time, such as described by sector. This will assist in lobbying for policies that are
Berggren et al. (2015).
on how niche development can promote a Just transition 4. What are the barriers and path dependencies of the aligned at all levels, thereby ensuring that solar PV
in the South African solar PV industry by focusing on the regime that are preventing a Just transition in the solar The Multilevel Perspective explains how the adoption takes place seamlessly in all segments.
following questions: PV industry? incumbents in the regime create an environment that
Methodology Conclusion

MBA THESIS A qualita tiv e appr oach w as taken t o unc o v er new insigh ts were conducted with role players in the solar PV industry,

were conducted with role players in the solar PV industry,
A qualitative approach was taken to uncover new insights
d t
o the applica
tion of the MLP fr
with regard to the application of the MLP framework to bring including installers, retailers and consultants. Data from two The results showed that the transition in South Africa will be a gradual one and that increased levels of
with r
egar
amew
o br
including installers, retailers and consultants. Data from two
ing
or
k t
further interviews with a representative from a bank and a
T
r
about a Just Transition in the South African Solar PV industry.
March 2022 about a Just tur ansition in the S outh A fr ican S olar PV industr y . further interviews with a representative from a bank and a collaboration within the sector are required in order to develop a strong niche. The study also showed that the
view w
as desig
ned using c
er
A semi-structured interview was designed using constructs of
A semi-struc
t
ed in
government representative to triangulate the date from the
government representative to triangulate the date from the
ts of
onstruc
core dataset The four criteria of credibility, transferability,
Multilev el P erspec tiv e fr om T ur nheim & G eels (2019) and Just core dataset The four criteria of credibility, transferability, main driver of the transition was energy security combined with price competitiveness. Therefore, if the transition
Multilevel Perspective from Turnheim & Geels (2019) and Just
T r ansition fr om M cC auley & Heffr on, (2018). T w elv e in t er view s dependability, and confirmability were met for the study. is to continue, enablers such as battery storage technology must be further developed to become more
Transition from McCauley & Heffron, (2018). Twelve interviews
dependability, and confirmability were met for the study.
price-competitive. Greater collaboration between the sector, financial institutions, and the government is needed
Findings to increase access and affordability of solar PV systems or else it will remain only accessible to the affluent and
leave everyone else behind. The development of these areas can contribute to a Just Energy Transition.
Fifteen themes emerged from the data analysis, presented in the table below, together with the research questions from which
they emerged. References
FIFTEEN THEME QUESTIONS
What are the niche What are the barriers and path
What pathways What are the key Just innovations and who are the dependencies of the regime that Bagherian, J., & Lettice, F. (2016). A multi-level perspective towards energy regime Geels, F. W., Kern, F., Fuchs, G., Hinderer, N., Kungl, G., Mylan, J & Wassermann, S.
have solar PV energy transition Transition issues facing the solar actors present in the South are preventing a Just transition in transitions: A wind energy diffusion case study. InImpact: The Journal of Innovation (2016). The enactment of socio-technical transition pathways: A reformulated
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