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Some Implications of Emergence

Emergence is a reality in complex contexts and always has been. It is a
pervasive phenomenon and is continuously operating. Business
strategists need to be aware of a number of key implications of
Emergence.

The Idea of Historical Progress

Until the last few decades, the conventional view of progress was
linear and goal-directed (teleological); the idea that there is an (ideal)

terminal state toward which society is heading. Based on the ideas of
stigmergic action an alternative explanation exists.

This view contends that one cannot consider the development of any
particular piece of the modern world in isolation. Rather, the entire

gestalt of the modern world is the result of a web of interconnected
events, each one consisting of a person or group acting for reasons of
their own motivations (e.g., profit, curiosity, religious) with no concept
of the final, modern result to which the actions of either them or their

contemporaries would lead. The interplay of the results of these
isolated events is what drives history and innovation.

The implications are threefold.

1. If history is driven by individuals who act only on what they
know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their

actions will eventually lead, then predicting the future course
of (say, technological) progress is merely conjecture. We will be
equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will

lead, especially events we weren't even aware of at the
time.

2. If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of
preserved past events and innovations with the needs and

insights of individuals today, then as time goes on the number of

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