Page 18 - The Complexity Perspective 20 02 18

these events and innovations increases. This increase in possible
connections stimulates the process of innovation to not only
continue but to accelerate.

3. Finally, 'stigmergic action' is based on interactions between
agents. If communications improve, interactions may increase.
This will underpin a further acceleration in the rate of invention

and innovation. Given the Internet with its capability of linking
everyone on the planet to everyone else, we should be in the
early stages of a massive acceleration in technological progress.

We’re entering an age of acceleration. The

models underlying society at every level,
which are largely based on a linear model of
change, are going to have to be redefined.

Because of the explosive power of
exponential growth, the 21st century will be
equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at
today’s rate of progress; organizations have

to be able to redefine themselves at a faster
and faster pace.

Originally published in Perspectives on Business Innovation.
Published on KurzweilAI.net May 1, 2003

Forecasting

The above means that prediction becomes more difficult. Short-term
forecasting as a linear extension of last year's sales may still be a
'plausible' way of creating next year's budget. But, unless you have a

monopoly on a basic good, projecting out five or ten years is likely to
be a hopeless exercise. It was the recognition of this reality that led
Shell to create 'scenario planning'. The practical process of projecting

alternate futures, however, is still influenced by the momentum of the

18
©Business Games Works 2018 (Version 1)