Page 13 - Food Outlook

MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS
After stagnating in 2016, world meat production is
forecast to recover in 2017, increasing by 1.1 percent, or
3.5 million tonnes, to 324.8 million tonnes, amid moderate increases in bovine, pig and poultry meats and a modest gain in ovine meat. Much of the global meat output expansion
is forecast to originate in the United States, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Mexico and India, but also in Argentina, Turkey and Thailand. After two years of downsizing associated with an on-going process of farm restructuration and consolidation, meat production in China, the world’s largest meat producer, is expected to remain stable around the 2016 level, as expansions in ovine, pig and bovine meats are anticipated to compensate for a marked decline in poultry meat, constrained mainly by the spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
World trade in meat is forecast to reach
31.5 million tonnes in 2017, 1.2 percent above last year, but the growth is slower than the 4.4 percent registered in 2016. World trade in bovine meat is expected to record the fastest expansion, followed by poultry, while pigmeat and ovine meat trade may fall somewhat. On the demand side, Japan, Angola, Cuba and Mexico, as well as the Republic of Korea, Iraq, Chile, the United Arab Emirates and Viet Nam are all expected to step up imports. By contrast, meat imports by China, the EU, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Canada may decline, in some cases a reflection of larger domestic supplies and, in others, of falling demand in the wake of relatively high international prices. Among exporters, the United States, Thailand, India, Argentina, Ukraine and Brazil are all anticipated to step up meat exports in 2017, while
the EU, Australia, New Zealand, Paraguay and Chile may see theirs fall. The spread of the HPAI is expected to affect the direction and pace of poultry meat production and trade across different regions.
International prices of all meat categories firmed moderately over the first half of the year but levelled off in recent months due to intensified competition and sluggish import demand. Across the various meat categories, the ovine meat prices gained as much as 39 percent, while bovine, poultry and pigmeat prices individually increased by nearly 7 percent. The FAO Meat Price Index gained 9 percent, or 14 points, between January and October 2017, mainly reflecting the price movements of bovine, pig and poultry meats, which have larger weights in the index.
Contact:
Upali.GalketiAratchilage@fao.org
FAO INTERNATIONAL MEAT PRICE INDEX (2002-2004 = 100)
200
190
180
170
160
150
2015
2016
2017
140 J F M A M J J A S O N D
WORLD MEAT MARKET AT A GLANCE
2015
WORLD BALANCE
Production 320.5 Bovine meat 67.6 Poultry meat 116.9 Pigmeat 116.1
2016
estim.
million tonnes
321.3
68.3 117.2 115.8
14.4
31.2
8.9 12.8 8.3 0.9
43.0
9.7
2016
156
Change: 2017 over 2016
%
1.1
1.7 0.9 1.0 0.6
1.2
2.2
2.0 -0.7 -0.5
-0.1
0.1
Change: Jan-Oct 2017 over Jan-Oct 2016 %
9.3
2017
f’cast
Ovine meat
Trade
Bovine meat
Poultry meat
Pigmeat 7.2 Ovine meat 1.0
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption:
14.4
29.8
324.8
69.5 118.2 117.0
14.5
9.2 12.2
31.5
9.1 13.1 8.2 0.9
World (kg/year)
Trade - share of prod. (%)
FAO MEAT PRICE INDEX (2002-2004=100)
43.3
9.3
2015
168
42.9
9.7
2017
Jan-Oct
170
FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2017
7
Market summaries