Page 200 - Trilateral Korea Japan U.S. Cooperation

Threat Perceptions of Japan

China’s assertive actions in the East and South China Seas
potentially threaten Japan’s territorial claims and maritime
security, while tensions over the Taiwan Strait could escalate
into armed conflict between China and Taiwan, posing a
significant risk to Japan’s security and maritime transportation
routes. Additionally, if China gains dominance in the South
China Sea and expands its influence into the Western Pacific,
it could diminish U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific region,
impacting the security of Japan and other U.S. allies. The
strengthening of China’s military power is a major threat to
Japan. Since surpassing Japan’s defense-related expenditures in
FY1998, China’s military expenditures have been increasing at
a rapid pace, reaching approximately 4.8 times Japan’s defense-
related expenditures in FY2022. In fact, China’s announced
defense spending is believed to be only a fraction of what
it actually spends for military purposes. The rapid increase
in defense spending has allowed China to surpass Japan in
terms of the size of its maritime and air assets, and it is also
strengthening its capabilities in new areas such as space and
cyber. In terms of nuclear capabilities, the U.S. Department
of Defense estimates that China is likely to possess 1,000
transportable nuclear warheads by 2030.

The risk of a Korean Peninsula contingency, with North
Korea’s rapid advancement in missile and nuclear capabilities,
is rising. If North Korea abandons engagement with the
United States and tensions escalate, it could lead to a
catastrophic situation, especially in the absence of dialogue
among key stakeholders.

200 Section III : South Korea-Japan-U.S. Cooperation: How to Deter Pyongyang and Dissuade Beijing