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The	 gifted	 science	 writer	 Stephen	 Jay	 Gould	 once	 wrote	 a	 wonderful	 essay	 on
how	 our	 memories	 deceive	 us.	 For	 years,	 Gould	 remembered	 the	 sunny
afternoons	of	his	youth,	talking	with	his	dad	on	the	steps	leading	into	the	Forest
Hills	 Tennis	 Center.	 Several	 years	 ago,	 Gould	 was	 walking	 in	 his	 old
neighborhood.	Suddenly	he	saw	those	steps.

   They	led	up	to	the	dilapidated	door	of	Mueller	Moving	and	Storage.
   We	remember	badly.	We	look	back	and	see	things	that	were	not	there.	We	cite
as	proof	for	something	an	event	that	simply	did	not	occur	as	we	remember	it.
   In	planning,	Beware	of	what	you	think	you	remember.

The	Fallacy	of	Experience

	

They	say	people	learn	from	experience.	Some	do.
   But	 consider	 what	 one	 Minnesota	 company	 thought	 it	 learned	 from	 its

advertising.	In	1988	the	company	used	some	fairly	obscure	Minnesota	celebrities
as	spokespersons	in	some	unremarkable	national	television	ads.	The	ads	flopped.
The	marketing	director,	of	course,	confidently	concluded	that	using	celebrities	in
ads	doesn’t	work.

   The	people	at	Nike	should	speak	with	her.
   In	 the	 early	 1980s,	 a	 Minnesota	 dairy	 ran	 an	 internationally	 acclaimed	 radio
campaign	 featuring	 the	 dairy’s	 foreman.	 One	 spring	 morning,	 a	 dairy	 executive
received	an	angry	letter.	The	elderly	woman	author	was	upset	over	a	commercial
in	which	Ord	Paulsen,	the	foreman,	said	that	the	dairy’s	prize	cow	reminded	him
of	 his	 wife.	 Meeting	 with	 two	 agency	 people	 afterward,	 the	 executive	 read	 the
letter,	hurled	it	into	his	desk,	and	insisted	that	the	agency	kill	the	campaign.	The
letter	 confirmed,	 in	 the	 executive’s	 exact	 words,	 that	 “these	 spots	 use	 humor.
And	people	do	not	like	humor.”
   When	 we	 infer	 things,	 we	 tend	 to	 overgeneralize.	 We	 want	 to	 establish
cubbyholes	and	some	general	principles.	And	so	we	decide	that	celebrities	never
work	 in	 ads,	 that	 people	 do	 not	 like	 humor—and	 a	 dozen	 other	 examples	 of
concluding	too	much	from	too	little.
   What	 does	 what	 you	 experience	 really	 prove?	 Usually,	 far	 less	 than	 you
thought.	And	what	you	thought	you	learned	can	make	you	abandon	a	strategy	or
tactic	that	was	90	percent	right.
   Have	a	healthy	distrust	of	what	experience	has	taught	you.
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