Page 8 - Five Forces of Americanisation Richard Hooke 04072025 final post SDR1

The UK Defence Industry in the 21 Century
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The Five Forces of Americanisation

Context

The current deterioration in global security - “more war, higher military spending and increased acute
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food insecurity” (The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “SIPRI”, 2024) - coincides with
new governments in the UK, Germany, Poland, Canada and the USA, with further political change in
continental Europe, from France and Italy to the Baltics. In response, components of the world’s
economic and security framework, from the EU, the CSTO and BRICS to NATO and the UN Security
Council, have been flexed and tested to the brink of destruction. Reconciling the priorities of national
interest with those of collective deterrence, a preoccupation of most of the free world for over 80
years, is now an extremely pressing but truly daunting challenge.

Since the USA remains the world’s biggest spender on defence, still accounting for 37% of global
expenditure overall, regime change came at an immensely critical time. For the UK, the conflicts and
tensions testing the world’s established peacekeeping order, already agitated by a resurgent far-right
in Europe, are amplified by its withdrawal from the EU. Yet whilst the UK has strived for the freedom
to act unilaterally, even the world’s biggest defence spender has, until now, recognised the
effectiveness of using its vast military power alongside collaborative diplomacy. As former US
President Joe Biden said when welcoming home American hostages released from Russia in 2024,
“Alliances make our people safer.” This approach has been US policy for almost a century: what former
US President, Theodore Roosevelt, called “Big Stick Diplomacy”.

However, whilst the shared values of freedom, justice and democracy have bound the UK and US
together over that period, the British have progressively ceded ownership of the “big stick” to their
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larger partner. In 2025, with a “new sheriff in town” (ie: a new US President) and with NATO’s
cohesion – even its very existence - challenged by an evolving new US foreign policy, this position now
looks extremely fragile. America First resonates with every US pronouncement on the international
stage.

According to SIPRI, the world’s military expenditure increased, for the tenth consecutive year, to
US$2718bn in 2024, the highest level ever recorded, highlighting the impact of the war in Ukraine.
Between 2019 and 2023, Russian exports of major arms plunged by 53% compared with the previous
five-year period, while European imports increased by a massive 93%, with the USA further
consolidating its position as the world’s largest arms exporter. It accounted for 43% of global exports
between 2020 and 2024.

The Ten Countries with the Highest Military Expenditure 2024
Rank Country 2024 % Share of world
expenditure GDP spending
(US$bn) (%)
1 USA 997 3.4 37
2 China 314 1.7 12
3 Russia 149 7.1 6.0
4 Germany 89 1.9 3.3
5 India 86 2.3 3.2
Sub-total: top 5 1635 60
6 UK 82 2.3 3.0
7 Saudi Arabia 80 7.3 3.0
8 Ukraine 65 34 2.4
9 France 65 2.1 2.4
10 Japan 55 1.4 2.0
1981 73

Spending figures and GDP are in US dollars, at current prices and exchange rates.
Italy, Iran, South Korea were among the top ten in 2003, replaced by Russia, India, Ukraine in 2023
Source: SIPRI 2025

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07/07/2025 Richard Hooke 2025