Page 33 - The Edge - BTS 2021

AASBO SUMMER CONFERENCE

BY DON HARRIS

Here's How Political Insiders See 2022 Election

Two savvy political consultants – a Democrat and a He called Trump “the greatest turnout machine for
Republican – offered views on why Democrats didn’t Democrats and Republicans ever,” but said the former
seize control of the Legislature in 2020 and what to president is not a very popular figure with the majority
expect in the 2022 midterm election. of the electorate, particularly unaffiliated or independent
voters. If Trump continues to be part of the discussion,
In the closing general session of AASBO’s Summer Coughlin said that would hobble Republicans.
Conference and Expo, they also discussed the ongoing
effort to put on the 2022 ballot tax cuts that undermine He mentioned that Trump was having a rally later that
Proposition 208 and provide the biggest reductions to day – July 24 – in Phoenix, which he characterized as
wealthiest Arizonans. The panel of Chuck Coughlin, an audition for GOP gubernatorial candidates and “a
President of HighGround Inc., and DJ Quinlan, Partner beauty contest” for Trump.
of Radar Strategies, was moderated by Dennis Welch,
political reporter with Arizona’s Family on channels 3 Welch asked Coughlin how the Senate audit of the 2020
and 5. election would affect next year’s election. “It’s odd,”
Coughlin said, “that Republicans would pursue a policy
Welch noted that Joe Biden carried the state over not popular with a majority of the electorate.”
President Donald Trump and Mark Kelly won the U.S.
Senate race last year, but those successes didn’t enable He noted that state Republican senators get elected
Democrats to win a majority in either the Arizona House almost exclusively in safe districts, so supporting the
or Senate. Welch asked Quinlan: “What happened?” audit probably works, bur in a statewide race it’s “an
enormous problem.” He added: “If election tinkering is
Quinlan, a former Executive Director of the Arizona the issue in the fall of 2022, that’s a terrible issue for
Democratic Party, said that although Democrats did gain Republicans to run on.”
a seat in the House they still trail Republicans 29-31.
What happened was that the focus was at the top of But Coughlin said a Republican legislative candidate
the ticket and that a lot of Republicans chose to vote could offer a list of proposed election changes. “Arizona
for Biden and Kelly. “Unfortunately, they voted for has some of best election laws and procedures in the
Republicans in down-ballot races,” he said. country, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t something you
can’t do better,” he said.
Coughlin, who served Gov. Jan Brewer and Gov. Fife
Symington in various roles, said there were a lot of Regarding the audit, Coughlin said he didn’t know what the
lessons to be learned from the 2020 results. “It comes impact would be on future elections, but that state Senate
down to turnout,” he said. “2020 was a record turnout. President Karen Fann, who authorized the audit, has given
I expect a lower turnout in 2022, which should favor Trump the single most effective fundraiser. “That’s what’s
Republicans.” driving this – raising money for Trump,” he said.

Turnout always goes down in a non-presidential year, he Quinlan said Democrats had a strong turnout in 2018,
said. “You can’t get turnout without a message. Message the last non-presidential election, and said it could be
is critical.” strong again. “The Trump brand of politics, I don’t see
it going away. The dynamics for turnout that we saw on
He said he anticipates a GOP turnout advantage of 8 both sides, we’ll see in 2022.”
percentage points – about 42% Republican, 34% Democrat
and 23% unaffiliated. “You cannot win a statewide seat Asked about the tax cuts included in the budget bills,
just being partisan,” Coughlin said. “You have to have a Quinlan said, “I have never seen so much policy issues
message that goes to that unaffiliated electorate.” attached to the budget.”
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