Page 13 - The Edge - Winter 2016

2015 LEGISLATIVE WORKSHOP

BY DON HARRIS

JLBC Director Richard Stavneak Says ere

Are Many Demands for State Budget

A relatively rosy fiscal
picture was painted by the
Arizona Legislature’s top
budget guru, but Richard
Stavneak cautioned
representatives of three major
education associations that
a he y cash balance doesn’t
mean everybody’s needs will
be met.
Richard Stavneak, Director
of the Joint Legislative Budget
Committee, boiled down
budgetary prospects for the
next three years at the 2015
Legislative Workshop Nov.
13 sponsored by the Arizona
School Boards Association,
the Arizona Association of
School Business Officials
and the Arizona School
Administrators association.
JLBC projects a fiscal
2017 one-time cash balance
of $555 million, Stavneak
said. Of that amount, he said
$218 million will be available
for “permanent initiatives
without re-creating a long-run
structural gap.” Permanent
initiatives that would cut into the $218 million could include tax enacted tax legislation, including student tax credits and corporate
cuts, depending on the wants of legislators, Stavneak said. tax cuts, plus other adjustments will reduce available revenue by
“ ere is a lot of money in the checkbook,” he said, cautioning $303 million in 2017; by $196 million in 2018, and by $85 million
that it is not wise to spend all of it. “Remember the lessons from in 2019, Stavneak said.
the 2008 budget.” Projected baseline spending changes for several major agencies
It is impossible to forecast what will happen in scal 2019, but if and entities shows who is likely to get how much more money over
the historical average holds true a recession is likely, Stavneak said. the next three years. For example, K-12 is expected to receive an
e current economic expansion has been going on for 75 months, additional $75 million in FY2017, $165 million in FY 2018, and
but the average is 59 months. “We have to keep the possibility of $145 million in FY 2019 – and that doesn’t include money as a
a recession in the back of our minds,” he said, but that doesn’t result of the settlement of the schools’ in ation funding lawsuit.
mean a budget should be built solely on the possibility of a future Other state agencies likely to receive substantial increases include
recession. AHCCCS, the Department of Economic Security, Department of
A recent consensus forecast sees a slight increase in base revenue Corrections, and the three state universities. “ ere will be a lot of
for 2017, up 4 percent or $388 million; 2018, up 4.2 percent or $442
million, and in 2019, up 4.6 percent or $469 million. But previously CONTINUED ON PAGE 14

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