Page 3 - Rethinking China Policy

Rethinking China Policy

2017: A YEAR OF UPHEAVAL
By Robbin Laird

As we end 2016 and look forward to 2017, it is difficult not to believe that we face a year of upheaval.

Several dynamics in play at the same time and these dynamics will interact with one another to generate
profound change in the world as we know it.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, we had a period up to 9/11 where the world was characterized by the
increasingly power of the United States and Europe while China emerged as a global economic power. The
Islamic-Western conflict was already there but with the 9/11 crises it emerged full-blown.

And then the two decades of the war on terrorism entered the Western agenda, with the strikes in
Afghanistan and the ill fatted invasion of Iraq. As the Middle East began to resemble the 12th century
landscape of the crusades (a period which generated even more intra-Muslim conflict than that between
Christians and Muslims), the ability to manage the geopolitical landscape became secondary to the struggle
against various brands of Jihad, something not reducible to geopolitics.

The new phase of global development sees the continuing influence of the conflict with the Jihadists for sure,
but with the inevitable collapse of the “deal” with Iran, the Israelis and key Arab states are very likely to
confront the Iran leadership directly.

How violent the confrontation will be is anybody’s guess, but the challenge for the outside powers is
direct: who is supporting whom and for what purpose?
The anti-terrorism paradigm and the flawed from the start policy of putting Western forces into the Middle
East to reform societies that do not share Western values is over.

It has FAILED and both the military which has been sent on these missions and the citizens that support
them recognize this, although many American strategists somehow think this will go on.

Certainly, Europe and the United States will accelerate their efforts at energy independence from the Middle
East which poses significant challenges as well for the Middle Eastern and Russian oil producers.

What Western policies will be crafted to deal with the Iran conflict and with other Muslims and the Israelis?

And how best to define one’s interests in the Middle East when you are not largely dependent on energy
imports from the Middle East?

Also changing are the global macro-economics as industry is starting to come back from Asia to the
West, and both the Chinese and Russian leaders face significant economic challenges.

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