Page 4 - Rethinking China Policy

Rethinking China Policy

Their response to failure to meet these challenges are that they very likely to use military means to gain
domestic support in the face of declining economic performances at home.

Europe is in fundamental change.

With the Brexit negotiations to start this year and with a new French Preisident for certain and a new German
Chancellor probably, the Prime Minister of the UK will look to those two leaders for shaping what form Brexit
actually takes.
At the heart of the change certainly will be the end of the free flows of people which was never part of the
Treaty of Rome in any case.

Domestic security will return with a vengence with states having to demonstrate to one another that the
proteciton of the lives of their citizens matters more than excessive protection of individual privacy rights.

Europe could divide on this issue and as it does, Britain could work with those states serious about domestic
security and be part of a new European coalition.

The Euro will not survive in its current form, and how growth will be generated will be a serious issue in the
period ahead.

It is into this world where Mr. Trump is becoming President of the United States.

His election should provide cautionl to those over confident in their predictive abilities.
One book which I just read is Imperium by Robert Harris which is the first of a trilogy which I now will have to
acquire and read all of the volumes.

It is a book from the perspective of Cicero’s (slave) secretary and tells the story of Rome in the period of the
late Republic and early Empire, in other words, the time where the public life of Rome’s most famous lawyer
and orator unfolded.

There are many good comments throughout the book but this seems especially relevant now:

“You can always spot a fool, for he is the man who will tell you he knows who is going to win an election.

But an election is a living thing you might almost say, the most vigorously alive thing there is — with thousands
upon thousands of brains and limbs and eyes and thoughts and desires and it will wriggle and turn and run
off in directions no one ever predicted, sometimes for the joy of proving the wiseacres wrong.”

Trump is more of an independent than a Republican and has come to power promising significant change.

But then again so did President Obama (Remember Change You Can Believe In?)

But Trump certainly is different in that he ran against the leadership of the party whose nominee he eventually
became.

It is somewhat akin to the Progressive era in the late 19th century where both parties where in meltdown
over corruption and other issues and the election of President Theodore Roosevelt opened a new era.

In this sense, Trump is somewhat akin to his New York predecessor, although TR was known for his famous
statement about speaking softly and carrying a big stick.

TR came to power by accident and in a period of Western ascendancy and self-confidence and relative calm.
Second Line of Defense

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