Page 47 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

The National Bank of Moldova (BNM) decided to increase the
refinancing rate by 1.0 pp to 6.50% at its December 3 meeting.

This was the fourth rate hike this year to address rising inflation and
inflationary expectations. Further monetary policy tightening may follow,
as the inflation was not the result of only temporary rise in the energy
prices. In November, the BNM doubled the forecast for next year’s
average inflation to 14% y/y.

2.6.4 Industrial production

Moldova’s industrial activity on average and in most of the sectors has
recovered to pre-crisis levels already. In the 12-month period ending
October 2021, the industrial output increased by 4.8% y/y and by 3.8%
compared to 2019.

The food and beverage industries as well as the industries related to
the automotive sector (electric and electronic equipment production) still
lag behind pre-crisis period. Specifically, food production in the latest
available 12-month period was 2.5% smaller than in 2019 and
beverages production contracted by 6.5%. The production of electric
and electronic devices contracted by 28% and 14% respectively. The

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