Page 49 - SE Outlook Regions 2022

2.7.1 GDP growth

Montenegro’s economy was the worst hit from the coronavirus
pandemic in the emerging Europe region in 2020, declining by more
that 15%. Thanks to the strong recovery of the tourism sector — one of
the main contributors to GDP — it rebounded significantly in 2021 but
has not yet returned to the pre-pandemic level.

GDP jumped by a real 25.8% y/y in the third quarter of 2021, after
expanding by 19% y/y in the previous quarter, according to the latest
available statistics office data. Montenegro’s GDP growth was much
higher than the EU average of 4.1%, according to statistics office data.

Measured at current prices, Montenegro's total economic output stood
at €1.52bn, higher than the €1.13bn reading in Q2. At current prices,
household consumption stood at €1.58mn. The gross fixed capital
formation totalled €292.1mn in the third quarter, while the net
export/import was negative €25.2mn.

According to the World Bank, Montenegro's economy is expected to
expand by 10.8% in 2021 thanks to the reviving tourism sector. In 2022,
the economy is expected to rise by 5.6%.

The European Commission says Montenegro’s economy should post
strong growth of 10.7% in 2021 and 6.4% in 2022. In 2023, the
economy is expected to grow by 3.2%.

The recovery in 2021 and 2022 is being driven by a surge in private
consumption and exports, in particular of tourism and transport
services. On the other hand, government consumption growth has
eased as the economic support measures are being gradually phased
out.

49 SE Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com