Page 9 - NorthAmOil Annual Review 2021
P. 9

NorthAmOil                                       MARCH                                           NorthAmOil







































                         Improvement                          the government said it would seek to recoup its
                         Crude-by-rail exports are not the only factor  funds if the project is cancelled.
                         pointing to an improvement in market condi-
                         tions for Canada’s oil sands. In March, the gov-  What next?
                         ernment of Alberta – the Canadian province that  The gradual improvement in conditions for
                         holds the oil sands – estimated that its 2021-22  Alberta, its oil sands and its crude-by-rail
                         budget deficit would shrink to CAD18.2bn  exports is still fragile, and remains vulnerable
                         ($14.4bn) as its economy starts to recover from  to new impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic.
                         the damage caused by the pandemic. This com-  However, a consensus of cautious optimism over
                         pares with a 2020-21 deficit of CAD20.2bn  post-pandemic recovery is emerging as several
                         ($16.0bn) – lower than a CAD24.2bn ($19.1bn)  vaccines are in the process of being administered
                         deficit projected in August 2020.    across a growing number of countries.
                           The narrowing of the provincial deficit has   Meanwhile, Canada is also facing a reset in
                         been attributed to recovering crude prices. And  relations with neighbouring US. While US
                         with OPEC+ deciding to largely keep their pro-  President Joe Biden’s term in office began with a
                         duction steady in March, this recovery is set  blow to Canada’s oil industry when he revoked
                         continue for now.                    the cross-border Keystone XL permit, he is now
                           In any case, after taking a battering last year,  seeking to move past this.
                         Alberta expects to do better this year even   In March, Biden had a virtual meeting with   The narrowing
                         though it may still struggle with ongoing pan-  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – his
                         demic impacts. The province, which generates  first bilateral meeting with a foreign leader since   of the provincial
                         much of its economic activity and revenues  taking office in January. Biden and Trudeau   deficit has been
                         from oil and gas, anticipates GDP growth of  agreed to work together on the public health
                         4.8% in 2021, after it contracted by 7.8% last  and economic crises caused by the pandemic, as   attributed to
                         year.                                well as on shared goals that include addressing
                           The provincial government has forecast that  climate change.            recovering crude
                         WTI prices will rise gradually over the coming   This comes after US-Canada relations were
                         years, averaging $46 per barrel over the 2021-22  tested by trade tensions during the presidency of   prices.
                         budget period, rising to $55 per barrel in 2022-  Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump. A law pro-
                         23 and $56.50 per barrel in 2023-24. While this  fessor at the University at Buffalo that specialises
                         will help the province and its producers if it  in US-Canada policy, Kathryn Friedman, was
                         plays out as expected, it may not be enough to  cited by NPR as saying the meeting represented
                         support significant new oil sands development,  a turning of the page from a more contentious
                         depending on how far producers have managed  era.
                         to bring down costs in recent years.  However, it is still early days in Biden’s pres-
                           The Alberta government has also said its  idency, and while his political stance is much
                         financial exposure from an investment in  more aligned with Trudeau’s than Trump’s
                         the Keystone XL pipeline totalled CAD1.3bn  was, the Keystone XL decision suggests that
                         ($1.0bn). The pipeline’s operator, TC Energy,  he will not shy away from decisions that Can-
                         has not yet scrapped the pipeline outright, but  ada opposes.™



       Annual Review 2021                       www. NEWSBASE .com                                              P9
   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14