Page 8 - DMEA Week 18 2021

DMEA COMMENTARY DMEA

Wider implications of unrest

in northern Mozambique

Amidst doubts about an SADC plan to send troops to Cabo Delgado, Mozambican

authorities should consider working with Tanzania to contain Islamist militants.

AFRICA UNREST in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s multi-lateral group, to consider intervening in
northernmost province, has already had a sig- Mozambique.
nificant economic impact. Last week, security officials from SADC’s
WHAT: Attacks perpetrated by Ahlu Sunnah members states gathered in Maputo, the cap-
ASWJ attacks have Wa-Jamo (ASWJ), an Islamist militant group, ital of Mozambique, to discuss the situation in
already disrupted recently led France’s Total to declare force Cabo Delgado. At that meeting, delegates from
Mozambique’s economic majeure on Mozambique LNG, a $20bn scheme Angola, Botswana, South Africa, Malawi, Tanza-
prospects. that calls for the development of Area 1, a huge nia, and Zimbabwe called for sending a regional
offshore natural gas field, and the construction of African force consisting of nearly 3,000 troops to
WHY: an onshore gas liquefaction plant. This declara- northern Mozambique.
Concerns about spillover tion is expected to set work on the project back The proposal drew enough support that it
of the conflict have led by at least a year, so it is bad news for the service was slated for presentation to SADC’s heads of
SADC to contemplate a companies that were counting on working for state during a summit scheduled for the first
multi-lateral military Total as contractors or sub-contractors. week of May. It also won applause from NJ Ayuk,
initiative. The suspension of work on Mozambique the executive chairman of the African Energy
LNG also has the potential to disrupt other large- Chamber Ayuk told the Journal of Petroleum
WHAT NEXT: scale gas projects. ExxonMobil (US), the opera- Technology last week that he believed SADC’s
If reports of Nyusi’s tor of the Rovuma LNG project, is also planning plan would help curb conflict in Cabo Delgado
preference for to build an onshore complex to process gas from relatively quickly.
bilateral deals prove its offshore site, known as Area 4. The group’s military force should be able to
true, Tanzania could It postponed its final investment decision obtain results quickly enough, he said, to allow
be a useful ally for (FID) on the Rovuma LNG project in 2020, cit- Total to resume work in “less than 12 months,”
Mozambique. ing concerns about low global energy prices and he commented.
the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pan-
demic, and it could delay further (or abandon Doubts about Maputo
the $30bn plan altogether) if northern Mozam- However, this optimistic take appears to have
bique remains in turmoil. been premature. SADC has not formally
adopted the plan, as its summit has been post-
Multi-lateral action poned indefinitely.
But the problems in Cabo Delgado aren’t just The ostensible reason for the delay is that only
economic. They are also worrying from a one of the group’s three-member security team
humanitarian perspective. ASWJ’s bid to gain would be able to attend the meeting in Maputo
control of northern Mozambique has led hun- this week. Some observers believe, though, that
dreds of thousands of people to flee Cabo Del- SADC’s plans are being derailed not by unex-
gado, and the number of refugees may soon pected logistical complications but by deliberate
reach 1mn. interference from Mozambique’s government.
Meanwhile, most of the displaced are living As evidence, they have cited Mozambican
in very poor conditions, with few prospects for President Filipe Nyusi’s past assertions that his
improvement in the near term. government did not want or need foreign assis-
The refugee crisis has also sparked political tance to address problems in Cabo Delgado.
concerns, as it has raised the prospect that ASWJ They have also pointed to security sources’
attacks could lead residents of Cabo Delgado to reports that the Mozambican leader sees bilateral
flee to neighbouring countries, such as Zimba- deals, such as the agreement his administration
bwe or Zambia. recently struck with Portugal for assistance with
These worries may have been one of the military training, as preferable to multi-lateral
factors that convinced the South African initiatives such as the troop deployment that
Development Community (SADC), a regional SADC is contemplating.

P8 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 18 06•May•2021