Page 9 - DMEA Week 18 2021

DMEA COMMENTARY DMEA

Tanzania: A potential partner? are already favourable, in some respects. Tanza-
If this is true, then Nyusi ought to consider the nian troops have already been stationed near the
prospect of a bilateral deal with Tanzania, for border, which lies just north of the areas where
several reasons. the Islamist group is active. Moreover, Tanzanian
For one thing, Tanzania has already indi- authorities are not averse to involvement in the
cated that it is willing to send at least some of matter, and they are keen to clear obstacles to the
its soldiers to Cabo Delgado. Its representative Tanzania LNG project, which will involve Royal
at last week’s SADC was part of the group that Dutch Shell (UK/Netherlands) and Equinor
endorsed the proposal to deploy nearly 3,000 (Norway).
troops in northern Mozambique.
For another, Tanzania has a direct interest Overcoming old quarrels
in quelling the unrest in Cabo Delgado. ASWJ Reaching an agreement on this front would
fighters have attacked multiple villages near the probably not be easy. Relations between Tan-
Mozambique-Tanzania border over the last few zania and Mozambique have not always been
years, and they even struck a Tanzanian border smooth, and politicians might argue that ini-
post last October. Incidents of this type have led tiatives that benefit Mozambique, Total and
Tanzanian authorities to deploy troops near the the other LNG projects might hurt Tanzania,
border in a bid to protect the southern part of Equinor and Shell (and vice versa).
the country. However, Suluhu has already shown herself
Furthermore, Tanzania’s government ought willing to apply herself to reconciling old quar-
to understand what’s at stake. The administra- rels. Earlier this week, for instance, she trave-
tion of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who led to Nairobi and met with Kenyan President
took office after her predecessor John Magufuli Uhuru Kenyatta to discuss bilateral trade and
died in March of this year, is eager to revive a co-operation. The meeting, which lasted for sev-
large-scale LNG project. This scheme, known as eral hours, resulted in the signing of more than
Tanzania LNG, bears some similarity to Total’s a dozen memoranda of understanding (MoU),
plan, as it calls for major international oil com- one of which envisions the construction of a
panies (IOCs) to develop offshore gas fields and joint gas pipeline.
send their production to an onshore facility for As such, it served to reduce the some of the
LNG production. And if ASWJ starts targeting tension that built up between the two countries
Tanzanian territory in earnest, it will face risks during Magufuli’s time in office.
similar to those that forced Total to stop work on As of press time, it wasn’t clear whether
Mozambique LNG. Mozambique’s government was contemplating
In short, if Nyusi wants bilateral deals, his any sort of arrangement with Tanzania along
administration ought to consider working with these lines. But it ought to consider doing so,
Tanzania against ASWJ. The conditions for a deal regardless of what SADC does next.™

Week 18 06•May•2021 www. NEWSBASE .com P9