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NorthAmOil                                   COMMENTARY                                          NorthAmOil




       China ramps up US





       crude purchases







       China is stepping up its purchases of US oil

       ahead of a preliminary trade deal between

       the two countries coming up for review



        US-CHINA         CHINA is ramping up its imports of US crude  ultimately lead to the Phase 1 deal falling apart
                         according to media reports in recent days. The  sooner rather than later.
       WHAT:             uptick comes ahead of a review of a preliminary
       China is ramping up its   trade deal agreed between the two countries in  On the up
       purchases of US crude   January as they attempted to find a way out of  The news that Chinese imports of US crude
       over the coming weeks,   their trade war.              would rise was first reported by Reuters on
       based on tanker booking   Under the Phase 1 deal, China agreed to  August 14. The news service cited US traders
       estimates.        increase its purchases of US goods and services  and shipbrokers, as well as Chinese importers, as
                         by at least $200bn over 2020-2021, including an  saying that at least 20mn barrels of US crude had
       WHY:              additional $52.4bn worth of energy purchases,  been tentatively booked to be shipped to China
       The country agreed in   from a baseline of $9.1bn in 2017. The amount  in August and September.
       January to buy more   of US energy products that China pledged to   Within days, Bloomberg cited estimates by
       US energy, and that   buy in 2020 alone was worth $18.5bn above the  market intelligence firm Vortexa, based on
       preliminary deal is due to   2017 baseline.            provisional tanker bookings, that up to 14mn
       be reviewed.        Critics were already questioning how real-  barrels of US oil would be loaded next month
                         istic the targets were, before the coronavirus  for delivery to China. This is equivalent to seven
       WHAT NEXT:        (COVID-19) pandemic forced the Asian coun-  fully loaded very large crude carriers (VLCCs).
       Doubts remain about   try to lock down, severely hitting its energy   Sources speaking to both Reuters and
       the deal between two   demand. However, China’s rapid and aggressive  Bloomberg believe the ramp-up in Chinese
       countries surviving.  response to the outbreak – which originated  purchases of US energy is politically motivated
                         in the country – has helped it suppress infec-  rather than driven by economics, as prices of oil
                         tion rates much more quickly than many other  from other regions are currently just as favour-
                         countries and thus restore its industrial activity  able, if not more so.
                         sooner.                               The surge is being driven by state-owned
                           This is helping China to step up its purchases  Chinese players PetroChina and Sinopec – the
                         of US oil – and liquefied natural gas (LNG) –  country’s largest refiner. However, even with
                         but it is still far behind its target, and there are a  the ramp-up, China is still falling far short of
                         number of other complicating factors that could  its agreed targets. US Census Bureau data show


















                                                                                                  A preliminary trade deal
                                                                                                  between the US and
                                                                                                  China was signed in
                                                                                                  January.


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