Page 6 - AsiaElec Week 26

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec

China’s rising emissions highlight

economic stimulus choices

China’s emissions have bounced back quickly, putting
the country’s carbon intensity targets in danger

CHINA CHINA’S CO2 emissions rose by 4-5% year on spending after the coronavirus (COVID-19)
year in May, bouncing back from their tempo- crisis.
WHAT: rary lockdown dip in February and March. However, although Beijing appears to be keen
China’s CO2 emissions Analysis of official Chinese data by the think- on coal just now, the government has always
rose by 4-5% year on tank Carbon Brief showed that the 4-5% rise in been aware that it must push renewables and that
year in May May followed a 25% fall between early February just building more coal power plants was neither
and mid-March. sustainable nor desirable.
WHY: This was followed by a period of bottoming Carbon Brief highlighted that the Beijing
Rising emissions was out as factories and power plants reduced out- government had released a six-ministry joint
driven by increasing put and transport fell dramatically. policy paper in early June telling provincial gov-
thermal power generation The figures for May show that the rebound ernments to prioritise clean energy, cross-prov-
and cement production in emissions has been rapid, with air pollution ince transmission and flexibility measures,
returning to pre-crisis levels. instead of approving more coal power plants.
WHAT NEXT: Carbon Brief noted that the energy-intensive Indeed, renewables is also set for rapid
Beijing’s carbon intensity industrial and construction sectors appear to growth, with developers hoping that the govern-
targets could be in be recovering faster than less-emitting services ment’s capital investment will also revive wind
danger if its carbon- and consumption, but the surge could be short- and solar installations, which actually fell in 2019
intensive stimulus lived. In 2020 to date, emissions are still down as tariffs were reined in.
spending continues by around 6%. Before disruptions due to COVID-19, solar
Thermal power generation and cement pro- PV installations had been expected to increase
duction showed the biggest May output increase by up to 50% in 2020, regaining the drop in
in emissions at 9%. installations in 2019 when solar tariffs were cut.
This is mainly driven by coal generation After the COVID-19 lockdowns, the industry
output recovering faster than overall power is still projecting a 15-30% gain to 35-40 GW of
demand, as new renewables additions have installed solar PV.
slowed since 2019 and hydro conditions have Combined total wind and solar capacity addi-
been poor so far in 2020. tions in 2020 could climb by 25% y/y to around
70 GW, Carbon Brief said.
Later in 2020 Whether Chinese emissions will continue to
Looking ahead, while China’s CO2 emissions rebound at this rate in 2020 will depend on Bei-
surged in May, the total for 2020 to date remains jing’s enthusiasm for investing in coal to stimu-
below last year’s levels and the prospects for the late the economic recovery and to maintain job
rest of the year and beyond are uncertain, said creation.
Carbon Brief. It must be remembered that China has not
Coal plant permitting accelerated to 40 GW joined many European countries in stressing the
in the first half of year, suggesting that high-emis- need for a green recovery, and for placing renew-
sion projects are being launched to prop up the ables at the heart of economic stimulus packages,
economy. as called for by, for example, the International
This 40-GW figure is the highest since the Energy Agency (IEA).
huge wave of permits in 2015 and four times the On the other hand, Beijing’s current Five-
total coal-fired capacity of the UK. Year Plan, which runs to the end of 2020, calls for
Meanwhile, overall investment in power reducing the country’s energy intensity, which
generation is picking up – capital spending on require more renewables energy to be used and
utilities grew 14% y/y in January–May, even as for coal use to be moderated.
overall capital spending shrank by 6%. Such targets could be in danger if Beijing con-
This shows the power sector is likely to tinues with carbon-intensive stimulus spending
be a key contributor to restarting investment without boosting green energy as well.™

P6 www. NEWSBASE .com Week 26 01•July•2020