Page 12 - Kazakh Outlook 2022

4.0 Real Economy

4.1 Industrial Output and Retail

Kazakhstan's industrial output moved up by 3.3% in annual terms in
January-November, according to figures released by the country's State
Statistics Committee. Though the COVID-19 pandemic substantially
impacted Kazakhstan’s economic performance and industrial output in
the 2021, industrial output improved on the back of double-digit
production figures in the ore mining sector and a gradual recovery in oil
output despite an overall contraction in the period.

Given that Kazakh industrial production relies heavily on the oil sector,
the figure is expected to continue growing thanks to the expected
recovery in oil output.

Kazakh retail sales moved up by 6.5% y/y in January-November,
reaching a value of Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) 11.7tn ($2.68bn),
according to data published by Kazakhstan's State Statistics
Committee. The gain was partly due to the year-ago base effect caused
by the country's first countrywide coronavirus lockdown that took place
between late March and May of last year, with another lockdown then
imposed in July 2020.

Nevertheless, the gain in retail sales also reflected improving economic
conditions and less stringent policies on retail businesses coupled with
the rollout of vaccinations. As such, this improvement is expected to
continue in 2022, albeit at a slower pace.

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