Page 8 - Kazakh Outlook 2022

Producer prices (avg, % yoy)

Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) 14.5 7.4 6.0 5.2 6.7

Consumer prices (eop, % yoy)

General budget balance (% of GDP)

Public debt (% of GDP) 19.7% 19.9% 20.2% 19.9% 23.4%

Current account balance (% of GDP)

Official FX reserves (EUR bn)

Gross foreign debt (% of GDP)

EUR/PLN (avg)

USD/PLN (avg)

Source: The World Bank, TRADINGECONOMICS

3.1 GDP growth

The oil export-reliant Kazakh economy in 2021 made something of a
recovery from the effects of the pandemic-driven drop in energy prices
along with the disruption in its service sector caused by two national
lockdowns and quarantine restrictions. This recovery is expected to
continue in 2022.

Kazakhstan’s economic growth reached 3.8% in the first 11 months of
2021, according to latest figures shared by Kazakh Prime Minister
Askar Mamin in a government meeting. The contraction was driven by a
decline in the services sector, which was hit by the lockdowns brought
in to stem the spread of the coronavirus in March-May and July-August.
The economy was also affected by global impacts of the pandemic. It
bears repeating given how important oil remains to Kazakh economic
health, and how exposed Kazakhstan is to falling demand for energy
and reduced world oil prices. The service sector accounted for 53.3% of
total GDP in the 11-month period, while industry accounted for 29.2%.

According to the EBRD, the Kazakh economy looks set to expand by
3.6% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022. The EBRD expects growth to be led by
stronger external demand and continued fiscal stimulus measures
supporting domestic consumption. Downside risks for Kazakhstan
relate to the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to disrupt trade and
economic activities.

8 Kazakhstan Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com