Page 4 - Kazakh Outlook 2022

1.0 Executive summary

This Outlook was at the turn of the year fully written and simply awaiting
the Editor’s sign-off when reports starting coming in of growing
demonstrations across Kazakhstan. To say the countrywide scale of the
subsequent unrest and palace intrigue that followed have somewhat
changed the horizon for Central Asia’s largest economy would be
something of an understatement. For Kazakhstan, the consequences
herald nothing less than the start of a new era.

Nursultan Nazarbayev ruled the post-Soviet country from 1990 to 2019
as president and then for the next three years, by all accounts, retained
power in many crux areas from his position behind the scenes as
“Elbasy” (“Leader of the Nation for life”) and head of the national
security council. His handpicked successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev,
was seen as little more than a placeman, installed as president on the
81-year-old Nazarbayev’s say-so (Kazakhstan’s stage-managed
elections are one aspect of the country that upset some of the
population, though not all) with orders not to rock the boat. The
Nazarbayev clan thus continued to exert authority in politics and control
large swathes of the economy, holding companies and assets both at
home and abroad that have made various oligarchic individuals
extremely wealthy.

As the unrest mounted—the destruction of much of Almaty city hall and
the brief seizure of the commercial capital’s airport came before
Tokayev issued a shoot-to-kill order—rumours spread that both Tokayev
and Nazarbayev’s people were looking to exploit the momentous
crossroads the country found itself at by taking full control of the
presidency and regime. A turning point came when Tokayev announced
he’d invited in Russian and other CSTO security alliance member
country troops to assist in his crackdown on so-called “terrorist” and
“financially motivated foreign plotters” that were attempting to run the
show.

The speculation was that, with events on the streets threatening to spin
entirely out of control, Tokayev was anxious that he would not be able
to count on the loyalty of law enforcement, the security service and the
army. Whatever the cost to his dignity, the move to secure such visible
backing from the Kremlin worked for Tokayev as order was restored in
the country’s towns and cities and the Nazarbayev clan found itself on
the back foot.

If Tokayev really was the constrained president the speculation said he
was, he is that no more. A humbled Nazarbayev has very visibly, in a
video address to his countrymen accepted that his political life is over,
with Elbasy describing himself as a “pensioner” who’s earned a rest.
Tokayev, meanwhile, has been building up a populist campaign in an
attempt at establishing some popularity in the unsettled nation.

4 Kazakhstan Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com