Page 6 - Kazakh Outlook 2022

The government’s plans for initial public offerings (IPOs) of major
state-run companies on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) are likely to
suffer further delays. Those private companies that saw their share
prices horribly hit during the unrest, such as fintech player Kaspi.kz will
hope for a return to relative tranquility in Kazakhstan that will send
those prices back northwards. But the chill winds of a troubled global
economy—the accelerating inflation worldwide seems set to trigger
monetary easing and QE-unwinding from the US Fed—won’t be good
for emerging economies, thus investors in Kazakhstan will be alert for
economic turbulence from abroad.

2.0 Political outlook

In the wake of the huge unrest, your correspondent has largely
scrapped this section in favour of the assessment presented in the
Executive Summary above, but in terms of some of the other political
developments worth taking into account, note the following:

• In October, Kazakhstan was elected to the UN Human Rights Council
(HRC) for the term 2022–2024.

The priority areas of Kazakhstan’s work on the Council are set to
include the universal abolition of the death penalty, the promotion of
gender equality and empowerment of women and the fight against all
forms of intolerance, including the promotion of freedom of religion and
belief. Kazakhstan will also work towards upholding and assuring
inclusive and universal education along with respect for human rights in
the context of the COVID–19 pandemic.

This may allow Kazakh political activist groups to pressure authorities
for social reforms, but they will likely have to tread more cautiously now
given recent momentous events (again, refer to the Executive
Summary). The government will still attempt to maintain
an image of inclusivity and equality in the West in the upcoming years,
but the likelihood of the pressure being effective is relatively low.

• Prior to the unrest, despite a supposedly reformed peaceful assembly
law, protests in Kazakhstan were still routinely dispersed and
participants were fined or detained, according to Human Rights Watch
(HRW). The authorities deny registration to independent trade unions,
putting workers who try to defend workers’ interests, includingvby
organising strikes, at serious risk of unfounded sanctions, it added.

• On November 25, HRW asked if the EU was serious about human

6 Kazakhstan Outlook 2022 www.intellinews.com